Class 8 Orders Pull Back Sharply in November: What the Data Tells Us About 2026
Dan Moyer, Sr. Analyst, Commerical Vehicles|
Class 8 Orders Pull Back Sharply in November: What the Data Tells Us About 2026
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FTR’s preliminary data shows North American Class 8 net orders totaling 20,200 units in November, marking another month of weaker-than-seasonal activity. Orders declined 17% month-over-month and 44% year-over-year, falling well below the 10-year November average and underscoring ongoing caution among fleets.
Even with improved clarity around tariffs and the 2027 NOx rule, fundamentals remain too soft to drive a new equipment cycle.
Market Conditions Are Keeping Fleets on the Sidelines
Despite some policy improvements, several forces continue to hold back demand:
Weak freight volumes and sluggish seasonal performance
Persistent excess capacity across for-hire trucking
Margin pressure as rates remain soft
Elevated financing and equipment costs
Uneven freight and economic conditions
Cautious sentiment toward long-term investment
Fleets remain focused on cash preservation, maintenance discipline, and maximizing asset utilization rather than adding new tractors.
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Policy Clarity Helps—But Not Enough to Change Behavior
The market now has clearer direction on two key issues:
Tariffs
The updated structure is more measured than feared earlier in the year. While costs rise, the framework avoids major near-term disruption to sourcing or production.
EPA’s 2027 NOx Rule
Expected changes—particularly the likely removal of extended warranty requirements—may reduce the previously projected cost increases by nearly half.
These developments improve long-term planning, but they have not been sufficient to counteract weak freight conditions in the near term.
Vocational Strength vs. On-Highway Softness
Both segments saw declines in November, but vocational equipment outperformed on a year-over-year basis. This reflects:
Continued construction and municipal activity
Replacement cycles tied more to project funding than freight conditions
On-highway demand remains more sensitive to weak freight fundamentals and excess capacity.
The Three-Month Trend Is the Real Story
Orders from September through November are down 36% year-over-year, a key period that typically shapes the next order cycle.
This cumulative pullback signals that fleets are still unwilling to commit to substantial 2026 orders until freight volumes, rates, and profitability show clear improvement.
Analyst Perspective: Fleets Are Prioritizing Stability Over Growth
According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst – Commercial Vehicles at FTR, fleets are emphasizing:
Cost control
Maintenance discipline
Stronger asset utilization
Deferring expansion until market conditions firm
Manufacturers and suppliers will continue to face limited forward visibility, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight fundamentals strengthen.
Key Indicators to Watch in Early 2026
As the industry prepares for the next cycle, several factors will determine whether demand returns:
Sustained freight volume improvements
Spot rate stabilization and gradual strengthening
Continued capacity contraction
Relief in financing costs
OEM backlog adjustments
Broader economic momentum
A meaningful rebound will require stronger fundamentals—not just policy clarity.
Conclusion
November’s Class 8 order data reinforces a market still defined by caution. Fleets are prioritizing financial discipline and operational efficiency while awaiting firmer freight and rate conditions.
The result: limited visibility and continued variability for OEMs and suppliers heading into 2026.
FTR’s Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook delivers monthly forecasts, data, commentary, and analysis across the entire freight transportation landscape.
Vocational Strength vs. On-Highway Softness
According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst – Commercial Vehicles at FTR, fleets are emphasizing:
