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In September, consumer inflation remained cool while producer-level pricing was unchanged month-over-month. Real goods exports surged sharply in August, but wholesale inventories stayed steady compared to sales. Transportation business applications saw a decline in September, and mortgage rates jumped significantly during the latest week. Diesel prices rose again alongside volatile crude prices. Truck spot rates spiked following Hurricane Helene, and CDL hiring activity showed a slight increase after a strong gain in July. Meanwhile, rail traffic was impacted by a port strike and disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene.

In the latest U.S. economic update, payroll employment rose by 254,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.1%. August saw a notable increase in job openings, though construction spending remained sluggish. Mortgage rates edged higher despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Diesel prices rose marginally, while crude oil experienced a significant single-day gain on Thursday. Trucking jobs showed little movement in September, and Q3 saw fewer for-hire carriers exiting the market. Spot rates remained weak, and total rail traffic was essentially flat year-over-year. Meanwhile, work at East and Gulf Coast container ports resumed operations.

In August, consumer spending increased slightly by 0.1%, while the U.S. saving rate rose due to data revisions. The PCE price index continued to cool, and retail inventories remained relatively stable compared to sales. Manufacturing orders showed no significant change, and new home sales declined after a strong increase in July. Mortgage rates hit their lowest point in two years, whereas diesel prices rose for the first time in 11 weeks. Dry van spot rates dropped to their lowest since June 2020, though general freight contributed to higher trucking revenues. Meanwhile, a port strike looms unresolved, and intermodal traffic growth hit its lowest point in two months.

In recent economic news, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a point, aiming to stimulate growth. Manufacturing output showed signs of recovery in August, while retail sales remained stable. The inventory situation saw little change in July. Housing starts experienced a significant increase in August, although sales of existing homes are at a near 14-year low. Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in two years, contributing to a decrease in weekly initial jobless claims. Diesel prices are the lowest since October 2021, and truck spot rates have reached their lowest since July 2020. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) is holding a two-day hearing focused on rail growth, while East and Gulf Coast ports face the threat of a strike. Additionally, intermodal transport has driven a year-over-year increase in rail traffic.

In August, the U.S. added 142,000 payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%. Despite this, job openings hit their lowest level since January 2021, and the ISM manufacturing index remained in contraction. Auto and light truck sales declined, while mortgage rates held steady. Diesel prices fell for the eighth consecutive week, although trucking employment continued to decline slightly. Conversely, van spot rates increased heading into Labor Day. Rail carloads rose year-over-year for the first time since June, and East/Gulf Coast ports moved closer to a strike.

Retail inventories-to-sales ratios remained steady at 1.32 overall and 1.13 excluding automotive, reflecting historically lean levels. New durable goods orders surged 9.9% in July, driven by a significant rebound in aircraft orders, although core capital goods orders showed only a modest decline.

Unemployment benefits and mortgage rates remained stable, while diesel prices fell to their lowest since January 2022, and the trucking industry saw a net increase in carriers despite historically low spot rates.

For the week ending August 24, North American rail traffic increased 1.3% year-over-year, driven by a 7.1% rise in intermodal traffic despite a 4.5% drop in carloads, largely due to a short Canadian rail work stoppage, while YTD totals show a 2.3% increase with intermodal up 8.1% and carloads down 3.2%.