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Weekly Transportation Update: Imports, consumer spending fuel a strong freight economy in Q3

 

In Q3, the freight economy showed robust growth, though broader economic indicators were mixed. The U.S. added only 12,000 payroll jobs in October, and job openings dipped below pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing activity slowed slightly, but consumer spending continued to rise in September, with retail inventories remaining stable against sales. Mortgage rates climbed for the fifth consecutive week, and diesel prices increased following a previous decline. In the freight sector, for-hire trucking payrolls and the carrier population held steady, while truck spot rates showed minimal change. Rail traffic, however, strengthened in the latest week, signaling resilience in freight demand.

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Weekly Transportation Update: Sales of new and existing homes were mixed in September

 

Sales of existing homes have dropped to their lowest level in nearly 14 years, while new home sales reached their highest point since May 2023. Mortgage rates have increased again, adding pressure to the housing market. In manufacturing, the aircraft sector caused a dip in durable goods orders. On the employment front, continued jobless claims have reached their highest level since late 2021. Meanwhile, diesel prices have fallen after four consecutive increases, and truck spot rates have risen across the board. However, rail traffic showed weakness in the latest week.

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Weekly Transportation Update: Hurricanes, Boeing strike hit industrial production in September

 

The latest economic indicators present a mixed picture. Manufacturing output has been negatively impacted by adverse weather conditions and labor issues, while retail sales saw a modest increase in September. August inventories remained largely unchanged relative to sales. Housing starts experienced a slight decline in September, and mortgage rates continued their upward trend. First-time jobless claims decreased following a significant rise earlier. Diesel prices have increased for the fourth consecutive week. Truck spot rates have stabilized after the disruption caused by Helene, and rail carload volumes have received an unexpected boost. Additionally, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) has approved the sale of a short line railroad based in Mississippi.

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Weekly Transportation Update: Consumer price increases hold steady in September

 

In September, consumer inflation remained cool while producer-level pricing was unchanged month-over-month. Real goods exports surged sharply in August, but wholesale inventories stayed steady compared to sales. Transportation business applications saw a decline in September, and mortgage rates jumped significantly during the latest week. Diesel prices rose again alongside volatile crude prices. Truck spot rates spiked following Hurricane Helene, and CDL hiring activity showed a slight increase after a strong gain in July. Meanwhile, rail traffic was impacted by a port strike and disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene.

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Weekly Transportation Update: East/Gulf Coast container terminal strike suspended after three days

 

In the latest U.S. economic update, payroll employment rose by 254,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.1%. August saw a notable increase in job openings, though construction spending remained sluggish. Mortgage rates edged higher despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Diesel prices rose marginally, while crude oil experienced a significant single-day gain on Thursday. Trucking jobs showed little movement in September, and Q3 saw fewer for-hire carriers exiting the market. Spot rates remained weak, and total rail traffic was essentially flat year-over-year. Meanwhile, work at East and Gulf Coast container ports resumed operations.

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Weekly Transportation Update: Real consumer spending was sluggish in August as inflation cooled

 

In August, consumer spending increased slightly by 0.1%, while the U.S. saving rate rose due to data revisions. The PCE price index continued to cool, and retail inventories remained relatively stable compared to sales. Manufacturing orders showed no significant change, and new home sales declined after a strong increase in July. Mortgage rates hit their lowest point in two years, whereas diesel prices rose for the first time in 11 weeks. Dry van spot rates dropped to their lowest since June 2020, though general freight contributed to higher trucking revenues. Meanwhile, a port strike looms unresolved, and intermodal traffic growth hit its lowest point in two months.


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Weekly Transportation Update: The Fed cuts the target federal funds rate by half a point

 

In recent economic news, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a point, aiming to stimulate growth. Manufacturing output showed signs of recovery in August, while retail sales remained stable. The inventory situation saw little change in July. Housing starts experienced a significant increase in August, although sales of existing homes are at a near 14-year low. Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in two years, contributing to a decrease in weekly initial jobless claims. Diesel prices are the lowest since October 2021, and truck spot rates have reached their lowest since July 2020. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) is holding a two-day hearing focused on rail growth, while East and Gulf Coast ports face the threat of a strike. Additionally, intermodal transport has driven a year-over-year increase in rail traffic.


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Weekly Transportation Update: U.S. adds 142,000 payroll jobs in August; the unemployment rate edges lower.

 

In August, the U.S. added 142,000 payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%. Despite this, job openings hit their lowest level since January 2021, and the ISM manufacturing index remained in contraction. Auto and light truck sales declined, while mortgage rates held steady. Diesel prices fell for the eighth consecutive week, although trucking employment continued to decline slightly. Conversely, van spot rates increased heading into Labor Day. Rail carloads rose year-over-year for the first time since June, and East/Gulf Coast ports moved closer to a strike.


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Weekly Transportation Update: Vehicle purchases spur consumer spending; personal saving rate sinks.

 

Retail inventories-to-sales ratios remained steady at 1.32 overall and 1.13 excluding automotive, reflecting historically lean levels. New durable goods orders surged 9.9% in July, driven by a significant rebound in aircraft orders, although core capital goods orders showed only a modest decline.

Unemployment benefits and mortgage rates remained stable, while diesel prices fell to their lowest since January 2022, and the trucking industry saw a net increase in carriers despite historically low spot rates.

For the week ending August 24, North American rail traffic increased 1.3% year-over-year, driven by a 7.1% rise in intermodal traffic despite a 4.5% drop in carloads, largely due to a short Canadian rail work stoppage, while YTD totals show a 2.3% increase with intermodal up 8.1% and carloads down 3.2%.


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Weekly Transportation Update: Home sales rise in July, especially sales of new homes


In July, the U.S. housing market showed mixed signals with new home sales rising sharply, while existing home sales saw a slight increase. Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level since April 2023, providing some relief to buyers. Despite these gains, U.S. business applications declined, although the transportation sector saw an uptick. Initial jobless claims rose slightly, while diesel prices fell for the sixth consecutive week. Truck spot rates declined across all equipment types, yet both trucking and parcel revenues showed year-over-year growth in Q2. CDL hiring activity rebounded, and Canadian railroads were ordered to end a lockout. Meanwhile, a court rejected the STB's final offer rate review rule, and rail traffic experienced one of its strongest weeks of the year.


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