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The first week of August brought a dense mix of labor market surprises, economic adjustments, and freight market developments. FTR’s latest Trucking Market Update unpacks what’s real and what’s revision—offering a clear-eyed look at where trucking stands and what might come next.
Trucking Employment Gains Amid Broader Labor Concerns
Despite broader economic softness, trucking employment showed positive momentum:
- Truck transportation added 3,600 payroll jobs in July.
- Y/Y growth reached 0.4%, the strongest annual comparison since March 2023.
- Sector-specific volatility continued: general freight truckload jobs dropped by 2,200 in June after rising in May.
- Trucking wages eased in June for the second month in a row after hitting a record high in April.
Meanwhile, the broader labor picture turned more complicated:
- Only 77,000 total payroll jobs were added in July—well below expectations.
- Prior estimates for May and June were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs.
- The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and labor participation edged lower.
- President Trump’s controversial response to the revisions—firing the BLS commissioner—has sparked concern over the independence of U.S. statistical agencies.
Strategic Insight: Volatility in job data—both real and perceived—could introduce uncertainty into business planning cycles, particularly in transportation where hiring and investment decisions are sensitive to macro shifts.
For-Hire Carrier Market Stabilizes
Carrier churn appears to be plateauing:
- FMCSA approved 5,063 new for-hire carriers in July, a slight increase over May and June.
- Net carrier gain totaled 316, with revocations normalizing after a calendar-induced spike in June.
- The for-hire carrier base remains 35% above pre-pandemic levels, with ~89,000 more active authorities.
Want more weekly insights like this? Subscribe to FTR’s Trucking Market Update podcast and download the full slides at ftrintel.com/trucking-podcast.
Diesel Dips But Remains Elevated
- National average diesel price: $3.80/gal, down only slightly for the second week in a row.
- Prices have climbed nearly 35 cents over the past 9 weeks.
- Diesel is now up 4.5 cents Y/Y, the sharpest annual gain in over a year.
Crude oil pricing remains volatile, returning to ~$66/barrel after brief surges.
Spot Market Update: Slight Recovery for Vans and Reefers
Spot activity showed mild seasonal firmness:
- Dry van and reefer rates rose modestly after recent declines.
- Flatbed rates fell again, marking a fourth consecutive weekly drop.
- Total spot rate: up 1¢ w/w; essentially flat Y/Y (-0.2%) and ~9% below the 5-year average.
- Load volume rose 5.9%, with dry van up 7.3%, reefers and flatbeds both up 4.9%.
Freight Insight: Van and reefer firmness aligns with early August seasonal norms. Flatbed remains under pressure—mirroring weaker industrial activity.
GDP and Freight-Linked Economic Activity
- Q2 GDP grew 3.0% (annualized), largely due to a sharp drop in imports.
- Imports are a drag on GDP math but a boost to freight volumes, so:
- The GDP Goods Transport Sector (GTS) declined 14.6%, after rising 18.6% in Q1.
- Excluding inventory swings and import drops, GTS was flat, suggesting freight-linked activity held steady.
Trade & Tariffs: New Disruption Risks on the Horizon
- As of August 7, new broad-based U.S. tariffs take effect:
- 15% tariffs in general on imports from countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit.
- 10% tariffs in general on imports from countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus.
- 19%-20% tariffs on imports from several Asian nations.
- Elevated tariffs on goods imported from Brazil and India over political issues.
- 40% penalty for transshipped goods and removal of the de minimis exemption globally.
Impact: While these tariffs exclude Mexico, Canada, and China (for now), the ripple effects are global. Freight corridors may shift, volumes may distort, and retaliatory measures are likely.
Additional Economic Signals
- Manufacturing Index (ISM): 48% in July — fifth straight month of contraction.
- Positive signs in production (51.4%) and order backlogs (46.8%), but new orders remain soft (47.1%).
- Consumer Spending: Real growth was flat (+0.1% m/m), with durable goods down and nondurables up.
- Mortgage rates ticked down slightly to 6.74%.
- Retail inventories held steady in June.
Stay tuned for next week’s update as we continue tracking market shifts and drill deeper into June trade flows and wholesale inventories.
📊 Download the full podcast deck and listen to Episode 325 at ftrintel.com/trucking-podcast.
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