Trailer Orders Signal Continued Caution as Policy and Costs Reshape the Market

U.S. trailer market activity weakened again in November, reinforcing the fragile state of fleet investment as freight fundamentals, margins, and policy-driven costs continue to constrain demand. While October provided a brief seasonal lift, November data suggest that fleets remain hesitant to commit capital amid persistent uncertainty.

Trailer Orders Pull Back Sharply in November

According to FTR’s latest analysis, U.S. trailer net orders totaled 13,071 units in November, declining 19% month-over-month and 45% year-over-year. The drop confirms that October’s increase was seasonal rather than the start of a sustained recovery cycle.

Order volumes remain well below historical norms, reflecting a combination of:

• Soft freight demand and limited confidence in near-term rate recovery
• Tight fleet margins
• Tariff-driven trailer cost inflation
• Heightened uncertainty tied to evolving trade policy

Taken together, these factors are encouraging fleets to defer discretionary replacements, with some pushing replacement decisions deeper into 2026 and potentially 2027 .

Year-to-Date Numbers Mask Underlying Weakness

On the surface, 2025 year-to-date net orders are up 7% y/y, totaling 148,862 units. However, this comparison overstates underlying strength.

A portion of early-2025 demand reflects orders that historically would have occurred in late 2024, as fleets delayed decisions until after the November election. A more informative benchmark is the current order season: September–November 2025 orders are down 28% y/y, underscoring the depth of recent demand weakness .

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Production Adjusts, but Supply Still Runs Ahead of Demand

Trailer production finally pulled back in November, with builds declining 23% m/m—roughly twice the typical seasonal drop—and edging 1% lower y/y. Despite this adjustment, production continues to run ahead of orders as OEMs balance labor stability, fixed-cost absorption, and year-end capacity utilization.

As a result:

• Backlogs declined 1% m/m and 23% y/y to 72,697 units
• The backlog-to-build ratio improved to 5.4 months, driven by steeper production cuts than order declines

Absent a meaningful improvement in the 2026 order season, further production adjustments may be required to prevent continued backlog erosion .

Trade Policy Becomes a Central Market Variable

Trade-related policy actions are increasingly shaping both cost structures and demand behavior across the trailer market. Section 232 tariffs remain the most persistent cost headwind, while additional uncertainty is building around van trailers due to an ongoing U.S. International Trade Commission antidumping and countervailing-duty investigation involving imports from Canada, China, and Mexico.

These developments complicate pricing, sourcing, and capital allocation decisions across the supply chain. As Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, notes, policy risk is now embedded in fleet replacement planning, favoring more selective ordering, longer trade cycles, and increased focus on total cost of ownership.

New: Expanded Intermodal Chassis Reporting Now Included

To better capture evolving equipment dynamics, FTR has expanded its Truck & Trailer Outlook reporting to include a new U.S. intermodal chassis trailer dataset.

This enhancement adds:

• Coverage of both international and domestic chassis fleets
• Monthly indicators for net orders, production, and backlog
• Historical data extending back to 2014
• Integration into the U.S. Trailer Monthly Market Indicators – Database (Excel)

As intermodal volumes, port activity, and equipment availability remain critical variables for shippers, carriers, and investors, this added visibility provides a more complete picture of trailer and chassis supply trends across freight modes.  

Why This Matters

The November data reinforce a broader theme: the U.S. trailer market is no longer driven solely by freight demand cycles. Policy risk, cost inflation, and capital discipline are now equally important inputs into fleet decision-making.

With expanded chassis reporting now incorporated, FTR’s trailer data offers a more comprehensive view of equipment supply, helping market participants better assess risks, plan capacity, and navigate an increasingly complex investment environment.

For charts, detailed data, and ongoing updates, visit the FTR Trailer Orders page:
www.ftrintel.com/trailer-orders

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