forecasting
SCI
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) jumped to 3.56 in May—the highest level in over three years. But according to FTR’s experts, this upswing may not be the start of a lasting trend.
Key Takeaways from May’s Report:
- 📈 TCI Hits 3.56: A major increase from April’s -0.81 and the strongest reading since February 2022.
- ⛽ Diesel Prices Drove the Gains: Lower fuel costs played a big role in the positive TCI number.
- 📦 Freight Volume Jumped: But FTR doesn’t expect that increase to be sustained.
- ⚖️ Market Still on Shaky Ground: Despite the TCI surge, FTR forecasts continued volatility.
“The unusually robust TCI reading in May – certainly by the standards of the past couple of years – speaks more to the volatility of market conditions than it does improvement," said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
“The index’s largest positive factor was falling diesel prices, which was not the situation in June or July, of course. Nor do we expect May’s big improvement in freight volume to be sustained.”
“We still expect the start of a modestly more favorable market for carriers by early next year, but, frankly, we still see significant risks both to the upside and downside.”
What’s Next for Carriers?
The near-term outlook suggests neutral or negative conditions, even as optimism builds for 2026. A critical factor to watch? Rising insurance premiums. FTR notes that this added cost pressure—particularly on small carriers—could spark a capacity shakeout.
Where to Get the Full Picture
The May TCI data and deeper analysis are available in the July edition of FTR’s Trucking Update, which covers:
- Load volumes
- Capacity environment
- Freight rates
- Economic context
- Potential impact of new out-of-service criteria
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