forecasting
SCI
Preliminary July Orders See a Monthly Rebound, But Long-Term Challenges Persist
North American Class 8 preliminary net orders rebounded in July to 12,700 units—marking a 42% increase from June. However, that monthly gain comes with important context: year-over-year orders are still down 7%, marking the seventh straight annual decline and keeping volumes well below the 10-year July average of 19,974 units.
Despite improvement across both vocational and on-highway segments, it’s the on-highway sector—primarily responsible for long-haul freight—that remains especially pressured. Trade instability, slow economic growth, and elevated inventory levels continue to challenge equipment purchasing decisions for fleets.
📉 Key Figures at a Glance:
- July Orders: 12,700 units (↑ 42% m/m, ↓ 7% y/y)
- 12-Month Total: 254,349 units
- 2025 Order Cycle (Sept 2024–July 2025): ↓ 15% y/y
Quote from FTR Analyst Dan Moyer:
“Ongoing tariff volatility and broader economic and truck freight market sluggishness continue to negatively impact the Class 8 market, driving a substantial 30% y/y decline in year-to-date net orders.
Class 8 market uncertainty is further elevated due to the potential imposition of Section 232 tariffs... [and] the lack of clarity regarding potential Environmental Protection Agency revisions to 2027 NOx emissions standards... Meanwhile, continued record-high inventory levels are placing additional downward pressure on Class 8 production.”
Looking Ahead
Final July data will be published mid-month as part of FTR’s North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service, which delivers in-depth insight into demand drivers, policy risks, and production trends.
📊 Access updated charts here: Class 8 Truck Orders Chart
FTR Transportation Conference 2025
For forward-looking insights, join FTR’s experts this September 8-11, at the FTR Transportation Conference. The first two days focus on truck equipment and freight market forecasts.
📝 Want to stay ahead of the curve? Check out all the ways FTR can help!
