Shippers Face Slight Headwinds in May, But Volatility Looms Large

FTR’s latest Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) remained just shy of neutral territory in May, slipping slightly to a reading of -0.9 from -0.6 in April. This marks the fifth consecutive month that the index has hovered between +1 and -1—suggesting neither strong headwinds nor tailwinds for shippers in recent months.

A Mixed Freight Environment

According to Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, the May reading may not fully capture the nuances in the market:

“The freight market was slightly weaker for shippers in May than the SCI might imply because falling diesel prices offset mildly unfavorable capacity utilization and freight rates.”

Looking ahead, FTR expects conditions to dip further into negative territory in the short term, largely due to rising fuel costs. However, the firm notes that shippers may see relief by the end of the year, with no consistently unfavorable market expected until 2027.

Still, uncertainty reigns:

“Volatility will be the norm for a while,” Vise emphasized, citing unknowns around both freight volumes and capacity utilization.

Signals to Watch

• 📉 Rising Insurance Premiums: As detailed in the July Shippers Update, increasing insurance costs may drive small carriers out of the market, potentially tightening capacity.

• ⚖️ Freight Metrics: The SCI considers four core inputs—freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel prices—to provide a composite view of the freight environment for shippers.

Even minor shifts in these components can quickly tilt conditions, highlighting the need for agile logistics planning.

Industry Insights at the FTR Conference

For those navigating these complex dynamics, the upcoming FTR Transportation Conference (September 8–11, Indianapolis) offers a chance to hear real-time updates and forecasts from FTR’s expert team. Two full days will be dedicated to truck and rail freight market outlooks.

Learn more and register: www.ftrconference.com

Explore the Full SCI Report and Data Visuals:
📊 Access the latest SCI charts and data

Learn more at www.FTRintel.com, follow @FTRintel on X, and connect on LinkedIn.

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