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Economic growth in Q4 does little to bolster freight demand.

• Sluggish orders for durable manufactured goods were skewed upward by aircraft orders.
• Real consumer spending falls for the second straight month as the savings rate rebounds.
• Dry van and refrigerated spot rates have given back their holiday-period surge.
• Rail carriers’ earnings reports share cautious outlooks.

Industrial and consumer indicators were quite weak in December. 

•  Manufacturing output drops by the most in nearly two years. 
•  Retail sales decline sharply in December after a  downward revision to November estimate. 
•  Van segment rates again fall sharply in a typical cool-down from the holiday surge. 
•  Intermodal and rail carload volumes rise week over week, but intermodal gains were weaker.

Consumer inflation continues cooling trend in December.

• New orders for manufactured goods fell in November.
• Wholesale inventories relative to sales return to pre-pandemic levels.
• Truck spot rates see typical post-holiday moderation.
• Intermodal is weak to start 2023; coal and grain bolster rail carload.

Consumer inflation eases year over year but remains a big concern.

• Merchant wholesaler sales, inventories edge higher.
• Flatbed pulls down spot metrics, but rates were sluggish in all segments.
• Intermodal volumes decline due to weakness in the west; grain bolstered rail carload traffic.
• Potential railroad labor disruptions are pushed out to December.

GDP rises in Q3, but the goods transport economy fades

• New orders for core capital goods see largest decrease since May 2021.
• Sales of new homes fall in September after August’s surprising increase.
• The trucking spot market sees volume growth, mostly stable rates in the latest week.
• Railroad labor issues return to the spotlight.

Industrial production and manufacturing output see gains in September.

• Housing starts fall but remain above 2019 levels.
• Diesel prices continue to rise as distillate inventories are still very low.
• Truck spot metrics generally move seasonally while West Coast volume is lowest since May 2020.
• Intermodal volumes hold steady as harvest drives up rail carload volume.

New orders for core capital goods show solid gain in August.

• Sales of new homes surprise with a sharp rebound.
• Real spending on goods declines as real spending on services ticks higher.
• CDL driver hiring activity in August was the strongest of the pandemic.
• Intermodal shows no volume improvement in week following rail strike scare.

Housing starts rise as multi-family construction hits an all-time high.

• Sales of existing homes fall for the seventh straight month.
• Industrial production dips due to weaker utilities output.
• Worries about a possible rail strike failed to bolster the trucking spot market.
• Uncertainty over the averted rail strike shows up mostly in weaker intermodal volume.

• Falling fuel prices hit merchant wholesaler sales in July.
• Diesel prices ease while crude sinks to its lowest price since January.
• Mortgage rates rise to the highest level since November 2008.
• Spot rates rise in key trucking segments heading into the Labor Day holiday.