Market Signals: Tariff Disputes, Diesel Declines, and a Surge in Trucking Startups

The early weeks of June brought a complex mix of policy shifts, pricing relief, and unexpected resilience in the for-hire trucking population. While tariffs and trade rulings dominated headlines, underlying market indicators suggest a freight environment that is still navigating uncertainty with surprising momentum in some areas.

⚖️ Tariff Corner: Legal Rulings Spark Uncertainty, Not Resolution

Tariff tensions escalated again last week, with multiple federal courts issuing rulings that could reshape how trade restrictions are applied—but not just yet.

• The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
• The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily reinstated the tariffs while the appeal is underway.
• A federal judge in D.C. also ruled against the tariffs, though that ruling applied only to two specific toy companies rather than broadly rejecting all tariffs.
• The tariffs affected include those aimed at fentanyl trafficking and the broader reciprocal tariffs that were announced in April.
• Steel and aluminum tariffs remain, and President Trump has increased them to 50%, effective this week.

📌 Strategic Insight: For shippers and carriers, these legal developments introduce potential for policy shifts but no immediate change to cost structures. Prepare for volatility in imports, especially from China, Canada, and Mexico.

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⛽ Diesel Drops to Multi-Year Low

Good news at the pump: Diesel prices fell to their lowest average since September 2021.

• National average: $3.451/gallon, down 3.6 cents.
• Price declines occurred across all but two U.S. regions.
• Crude oil prices remain stable at $60–$63/barrel.

📌 Strategic Insight: Fuel cost relief is a welcome margin boost for fleets—but don’t mistake it for long-term stability. Global events and trade rulings could quickly reverse course.

🚛 Trucking Firm Population: Growth Defies Market Concerns

Despite concerns over freight softness linked to tariffs, the for-hire carrier population continues to grow:

• Net gain in May: +607 carriers (even larger than April’s +558).
• Over 5,000 new carrier authorities were granted in May, continuing a steady rise in new entrants.
• New application identification requirements, including biometric verification, haven’t significantly slowed approvals—at least not yet.
• Revocations of authority declined, with 4,400 revocations, marking the second-lowest level since early 2022.

📌 Strategic Insight: The rise in new entrants—despite regulatory friction and tariff uncertainty—suggests optimism or necessity is fueling market participation. Keeping an eye on June’s data will be crucial to see if tariffs begin to suppress volume.

👀 What to Watch

• Tariff Implementation Timeline: While certain tariffs have been reinstated pending appellate outcomes, ongoing 30-day pauses for negotiations with Canada and Mexico may influence near-term freight flows.
• Diesel Price Stability: Global oil markets currently expect further declines to crude oil prices, primarily due to lower global demand and increased OPEC+ production. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for anticipating price shifts.
• Carrier Churn Patterns: New ID verification rules implemented by the FMCSA have marginally slowed motor carrier approvals. If approval rates continue to decline, it could create artificial distortions in market population metrics.

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