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In August, consumer spending increased slightly by 0.1%, while the U.S. saving rate rose due to data revisions. The PCE price index continued to cool, and retail inventories remained relatively stable compared to sales. Manufacturing orders showed no significant change, and new home sales declined after a strong increase in July. Mortgage rates hit their lowest point in two years, whereas diesel prices rose for the first time in 11 weeks. Dry van spot rates dropped to their lowest since June 2020, though general freight contributed to higher trucking revenues. Meanwhile, a port strike looms unresolved, and intermodal traffic growth hit its lowest point in two months.

In recent economic news, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a point, aiming to stimulate growth. Manufacturing output showed signs of recovery in August, while retail sales remained stable. The inventory situation saw little change in July. Housing starts experienced a significant increase in August, although sales of existing homes are at a near 14-year low. Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in two years, contributing to a decrease in weekly initial jobless claims. Diesel prices are the lowest since October 2021, and truck spot rates have reached their lowest since July 2020. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) is holding a two-day hearing focused on rail growth, while East and Gulf Coast ports face the threat of a strike. Additionally, intermodal transport has driven a year-over-year increase in rail traffic.

In August, the U.S. added 142,000 payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%. Despite this, job openings hit their lowest level since January 2021, and the ISM manufacturing index remained in contraction. Auto and light truck sales declined, while mortgage rates held steady. Diesel prices fell for the eighth consecutive week, although trucking employment continued to decline slightly. Conversely, van spot rates increased heading into Labor Day. Rail carloads rose year-over-year for the first time since June, and East/Gulf Coast ports moved closer to a strike.

Retail inventories-to-sales ratios remained steady at 1.32 overall and 1.13 excluding automotive, reflecting historically lean levels. New durable goods orders surged 9.9% in July, driven by a significant rebound in aircraft orders, although core capital goods orders showed only a modest decline.

Unemployment benefits and mortgage rates remained stable, while diesel prices fell to their lowest since January 2022, and the trucking industry saw a net increase in carriers despite historically low spot rates.

For the week ending August 24, North American rail traffic increased 1.3% year-over-year, driven by a 7.1% rise in intermodal traffic despite a 4.5% drop in carloads, largely due to a short Canadian rail work stoppage, while YTD totals show a 2.3% increase with intermodal up 8.1% and carloads down 3.2%.

In Q2, GDP grew by 2.8% annualized, with the freight economy rising 5.3%. Real consumer spending increased by 0.2% in June. Retail inventories remained lean relative to sales.

The aircraft sector significantly impacted durable goods orders. Existing home sales fell sharply in June, while new home sales slightly declined. Mortgage rates remained stable.

Diesel prices declined for the second consecutive week, easing transportation costs. Spot rates for flatbed and van increased year-over-year. Rail traffic showed mixed results: carload traffic was down, but intermodal traffic was up. A new rail safety bill was introduced in the U.S. House.

In June, manufacturing output surged to a 20-month high, with automotive production nearly tying its record peak. Real retail trade sales also saw an increase. Although inventories remained relatively stable compared to sales in May, housing starts rose in June but were still down year-over-year, while homes under construction continued to decline. Mortgage rates decreased again in the latest week, and diesel prices fell after four consecutive increases. Van spot rates continued to run higher year-over-year, and rail traffic showed some recovery from the holiday lull. Additionally, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) has scheduled a hearing to discuss rail growth strategies.