Truck and Trailer
forecasting
press release
The latest economic data paints a picture of an economy that remains stable on the surface but increasingly uneven underneath. Manufacturing, consumer spending, housing, and energy markets are all moving in different directions, creating a mixed environment for freight demand as we move deeper into the second half of 2026.
đźŹManufacturing Holds Steady, But the Details Matter
Overall manufacturing output was unchanged in May, masking a growing divergence between durable and nondurable goods production. Durable goods output continued to strengthen while nondurable production weakened.
Key developments:
- Total industrial production increased just 0.1% month-over-month.
- Durable goods output rose 0.8% and was up 3.2% year-over-year.
- Nondurable goods production fell 0.9% month-over-month and was down 0.6% year-over-year.
- Strongest durable categories included:
- Wood products
- Primary metals
- Nonmetallic mineral products
- Motor vehicles and parts
- Chemical production declined 0.8% during the month.
The manufacturing story remains one of selective strength rather than broad-based expansion, with industrial and durable goods sectors continuing to outperform consumer-oriented nondurable production.
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đź’°Consumer Spending Remains Resilient
Retail spending continued to grow in May, although much of the headline increase was influenced by inflation and higher fuel prices. Even so, consumer demand remains generally supportive of freight activity.
Key developments:
- Retail and food service sales increased 0.9% month-over-month.
- Retail trade sales rose 1.0%.
- After adjusting for commodity inflation, retail sales increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year.
- Nonstore retail sales grew 1.5% and nearly matched automotive sales as the largest retail category.
- Food and beverage sales were flat while restaurant spending dipped slightly.
The continued rise of nonstore retail remains one of the most significant structural shifts in freight markets, supporting ongoing demand for warehousing, parcel, and distribution networks.
🏡Housing Activity Takes a Sharp Step Back
Housing produced the weakest economic signal in the latest data. Residential construction activity fell sharply, reaching levels not seen since before the pandemic outside of the 2020 lockdown period.
Key developments:
- Housing starts fell 15.4% month-over-month.
- Starts were down 8.7% year-over-year.
- Multifamily starts plunged 41.6% during the month.
- Building permits declined only 0.7%, suggesting future construction activity remains more stable than current starts.
- Homes under construction fell 7.1% year-over-year.
- The average 30-year mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.47%.
Housing remains one of the most important leading indicators for freight demand because of its impact on construction materials, appliances, furniture, and related consumer spending. Recent weakness bears watching closely.
â›˝Energy Costs Move Lower
One of the most positive developments for transportation and supply chains has been the recent decline in fuel costs. Diesel and crude oil prices have fallen significantly over the past several weeks following easing concerns surrounding Middle East oil flows.
Key developments:
- National average diesel prices fell 15.1 cents during the latest week.
- Diesel prices have dropped more than 58 cents per gallon over the past six weeks.
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell roughly $14 per barrel between June 11 and June 16.
- Despite recent declines, diesel remains approximately $1.49 per gallon higher than a year ago.
Lower energy costs provide some relief for transportation providers and shippers, although prices remain elevated compared to last year's levels.
đźš‚Rail Traffic Continues to Reflect Solid Freight Activity
Rail volumes remain a bright spot, particularly in agricultural and industrial commodities. Intermodal activity also continues to post strong comparisons versus last year.
Key developments:
- Total North American rail traffic increased 5.6% year-over-year.
- Carload traffic rose 1.7%.
- Intermodal volume increased 9.3%.
- Strongest commodity gains included:
- Grain (+12.9%)
- Farm products and food (+12.0%)
- Metallic ores and metals (+10.3%)
- Year-to-date carload traffic is up 2.8%.
- Year-to-date intermodal traffic is up 2.3%.
The strength in agricultural shipments and metals activity suggests several industrial freight sectors remain healthy despite softer conditions elsewhere in the economy.
Bottom Line
The latest data reflects an economy that is neither accelerating nor contracting broadly. Manufacturing remains stable, consumers continue spending, and rail freight volumes are generally positive. However, the sharp decline in housing activity highlights an area of growing concern. Meanwhile, falling diesel and crude prices offer a welcome offset to transportation costs.
For freight markets, the economic backdrop remains characterized by stability—but increasingly with clear winners and losers beneath the headline numbers.
