December delivered a notable spike in North American Class 8 truck orders, offering a moment of momentum in an otherwise constrained equipment market. According to FTR, preliminary December 2025 net orders totaled 42,200 units, the strongest monthly result since October 2022. Orders rose 108% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year, landing well above the 10-year December average of roughly 29,000 units.
At first glance, the headline number suggests a meaningful inflection. A closer look, however, shows that the December surge reflects a combination of policy-driven clarity and the release of pent-up demand, rather than a broad-based recovery in freight fundamentals.
What Drove the December Order Spike?
Several policy developments converged late in the year, improving visibility for fleets that had been delaying capital decisions:
- Tariff clarity: Section 232 tariffs on Class 3–8 trucks, implemented November 1, proved less disruptive than many fleets had anticipated.
- Emissions rule expectations: Market participants gained clearer insight into expected revisions to the EPA’s 2027 NOx standards, including the likely removal of extended warranty requirements while maintaining the emissions threshold.
- Timing effects: Information around EPA plans circulated shortly before Thanksgiving, helping explain why order activity accelerated in December rather than November.
These factors reduced uncertainty enough for fleets to move forward with orders that had been sitting on the sidelines.
On-Highway Leads, but the Big Picture Is Mixed
Both on-highway and vocational segments posted strong month-over-month gains, but on-highway trucks accounted for most of the year-over-year increase. Despite December’s strength:
- Cumulative 2026-season orders (September–December) remain down 22% year-over-year
- Trailing 12-month orders total just over 22,000 units, underscoring how subdued demand has been overall
This divergence highlights an important dynamic: one strong month does not undo a prolonged period of caution.
