class 8 trucks forecasting

Class 8 Truck Orders Hit Post-Pandemic Low Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Headwinds

Dan Moyer, Sr. Analyst, Commerical Vehicles | May 2, 2025

3:07

N.A. Class 8 Net Orders Plunge to 7,400 in April

semi truck-1 April 2025 marked a stark downturn for North American Class 8 truck demand, with net orders falling to just 7,400 units—down 54% from both March 2025 and April 2024. This is the lowest total since May 2020, when pandemic-era shutdowns brought the industry to a near standstill.

While seasonality typically drives some softness this time of year, the scale of the decline signals deeper concern within the market. Several economic and geopolitical factors appear to be weighing heavily on fleet confidence and investment:

What’s Driving the Drop?

Tariff Tensions: Early April saw the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, intensifying cost pressures on trucks and components sourced or manufactured with international materials. New and retaliatory tariffs—especially those involving China—are increasing input costs and disrupting supplier relationships.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Weaker freight market conditions, alongside slowing economic indicators, are leading many fleets to delay capital investments.
Cancellations & Delays: Higher levels of order cancellations point to ongoing uncertainty. Both the on-highway and vocational segments experienced substantial month-over-month declines.
Regulatory Risk: Concerns around forthcoming EPA 2027 NOx regulations add another layer of hesitancy for fleets weighing long-term asset purchases.

By the Numbers:

April Orders: 7,400 units
Seven-Year April Average: 18,963 units
2025 YTD Orders (through April): Down 30% year-over-year
2025 Order Season (Sept 2024–April 2025): Down 11% year-over-year
Retail Sales (through March): Down 10% year-over-year
12-Month Total Orders (as of April): 269,772 units

Expert Insight

“New and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will significantly increase costs for Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst at FTR. “This will very likely reduce industry volumes, complicate production planning, and negatively affect profitability and stability for OEMs and suppliers in the North American Class 8 truck market.”

Moyer also cautioned that with the prospect of additional regulatory burdens on the horizon, particularly related to EPA 2027 emissions targets, uncertainty may continue to stifle demand.

Access the Chart
A detailed chart on April Class 8 net orders is available here:
👉 FTRintel.com/class-8-truck-orders

Get Deeper Insights at the Symposium

FTR will explore these developments in detail at the upcoming Heavy & Medium-Duty Commercial Vehicle Symposium on May 13 in Bloomfield Hills, MI. The event will feature analysis of: