forecasting
SCI
Preliminary data from FTR shows a sharp decline in North American Class 8 truck orders for June, reflecting mounting pressure from tariffs, regulatory shifts, and record inventory levels. Net orders totaled just 8,900 units, a 25% drop from May and 36% below June 2024 levels.
This marks the lowest June tally since 2009, significantly under the 10-year June average of 19,213 units.
Uncertainty Disrupts Seasonal Patterns
Typically, June brings a modest rise in order activity. This year, however, fleets hesitated. FTR attributes the downturn to a combination of:
- Tariff volatility: The June 4 hike from 25% to 50% on steel, aluminum, and fabricated components drastically raised production costs.
- Freight market instability: Weak freight conditions continue to reduce equipment needs.
- Economic uncertainty: Mixed signals in the broader economy are leading fleets to delay capital investments.
Both Vocational and On-Highway Segments Affected
While both market segments saw reduced demand, the on-highway segment accounted for the bulk of the decline. Cumulatively, Class 8 net orders for the 2025 cycle (September 2024 through June 2025) are now down 15%. For the past 12 months, orders total 255,265 units.
Analyst Commentary: Tariffs and Regulations Cast a Shadow
Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles, emphasized the breadth of uncertainty facing fleets:
“Market uncertainty is further heightened by the potential implementation of Section 232 tariffs on Class 8 trucks and their components along with anticipated revisions to EPA 2027 NOx emissions standards. As a result, many fleets are postponing equipment purchases. Record-high inventories are placing additional downward pressure on demand and production.”
What Comes Next?
Final order data will be released mid-month as part of FTR’s North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service. With additional regulatory decisions and global trade negotiations in flux, equipment buyers and manufacturers alike face a murky path forward.
Stay informed by downloading the latest order chart:
🔗 Class 8 Orders Chart – FTR
And for forward-looking insights, join FTR’s experts this September at the FTR Transportation Conference, where the first two days focus on truck equipment and freight market forecasts.
FTR Transportation Conference 2025
For forward-looking insights, join FTR’s experts this September 8-11, at the FTR Transportation Conference. The first two days focus on truck equipment and freight market forecasts.
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