Preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders showed a modest improvement in October, totaling 24,300 units, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. That’s an 18% increase month-over-month but still 22% below last year’s levels, marking the tenth straight month of annual declines. Over the past 12 months, orders have totaled just over 230,000 units, well below the 10-year October average of 31,000.
Fleets Remain Conservative Amid Persistent Headwinds
The data points to an industry still waiting for firmer ground. Fleets continue to delay replacement and expansion plans as they face a mix of challenges — soft freight demand, excess capacity, high borrowing costs, tariff volatility, and uneven economic growth. While both vocational and on-highway segments saw monthly gains, the on-highway sector accounted for most of the year-over-year shortfall, reflecting a cautious stance heading into 2026.
Short-Term Lift, Long-Term Uncertainty
According to Dan Moyer, FTR’s Senior Analyst for Commercial Vehicles, the recent uptick in orders is less about optimism and more about necessity: “The month-over-month improvement likely reflects targeted replacement activity rather than renewed investment. For OEMs and suppliers, visibility remains limited, and order trends are expected to stay uneven until freight volumes and rates improve.”
Combined September and October orders are now 32% below last year’s levels, underscoring ongoing freight market weakness and tight carrier margins. Many fleets are focused on cost control and asset utilization rather than growth, with a rebound in equipment demand unlikely until market and economic conditions stabilize.
Tariffs Add Another Layer of Complexity
New tariffs on heavy-duty trucks taking effect this month are expected to raise costs modestly but are viewed as more measured and targeted than initially feared.
Moyer noted that “USMCA carve-outs, offsets, and a delayed parts tariff create a framework that encourages reshoring and strengthens North American supply chains.”
Early indications show some production already shifting toward U.S. assembly, though expanding capacity will take time. The policy’s design aims to boost U.S. manufacturing competitiveness while reducing reliance on Asian imports, offering flexibility for future adjustments.
Looking Ahead
FTR expects Class 8 order trends to remain choppy in the coming months. Freight fundamentals remain the key determinant for sustained improvement — and for now, those fundamentals suggest more patience will be required before fleets feel comfortable committing to large-scale equipment investments.
