Class 8 Truck Orders Signal Caution Amid Tariffs and Uncertainty

North American Class 8 truck and tractor orders closed August at 13,000 units, according to preliminary data from FTR. The number represents a 4% gain from July but a 14% decline year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual decreases.

While a modest month-over-month bump provided a glimmer of stability, orders remain far below the 10-year August average of 23,135 units. The gap underscores how carriers and fleets are still approaching new equipment investments cautiously in the face of an unsettled operating environment.

Tariffs, Regulations, and Freight Demand Weigh Heavily

The trucking industry continues to grapple with multiple headwinds:

• Tariff pressures: Tariff increases imposed on August 7 raised costs across vehicles, parts, and inputs. A federal appeals court ruling has created uncertainty about “reciprocal” tariffs, but for now they remain in place until at least October 14 pending Supreme Court review. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper also remain untouched — and could expand to trucks, components, and semiconductors.
• Regulatory hurdles: Fleets are already delaying purchases due to looming EPA 2027 NOx standards, which cast doubt on future cost structures and compliance burdens.
• Freight fundamentals: Freight demand has softened, keeping pressure on rates and limiting carriers’ appetite for fleet expansion.

Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, noted that these combined pressures are forcing fleets to extend truck lifespans, leading to higher maintenance costs. Suppliers are squeezed by input inflation and uneven demand, dealers are leaning more on used equipment and service, and OEMs face profitability pressure with increasingly volatile schedules.

Order Cycle and Outlook

Looking at the broader cycle, cumulative Class 8 orders for the 2025 order year (September 2024–August 2025) were down 15% y/y. With 2026 order boards opening this month, the market is entering another critical period — but without a rebound in freight fundamentals, order activity is expected to stay muted.

The implications ripple across the supply chain:

• OEMs face challenges in production planning.
• Suppliers encounter heightened uncertainty in network coordination.
• Carriers remain focused on asset utilization instead of fleet growth.

Until tariff paths and regulatory frameworks become clearer, the Class 8 outlook is likely to remain unsettled.

What This Means for the Industry

This cautious order environment signals that the trucking industry is in a holding pattern. Fleets are weighing risk carefully, prioritizing cost control and utilization over expansion. For shippers, this could mean delayed capacity additions, while for OEMs and suppliers, it highlights the importance of resilience and adaptability.

As always, FTR will continue to monitor developments and provide updates in its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.  Download a sample report today.

👉 To explore the full release and access charts, visit: https://www.ftrintel.com/class-8-truck-orders

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