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class 8 trucks forecasting

Class 8 Truck Orders Signal Lingering Uncertainty Despite Modest Rebound

Dan Moyer, Sr. Analyst, Commerical Vehicles
Dan Moyer, Sr. Analyst, Commerical Vehicles |
Class 8 Truck Orders Signal Lingering Uncertainty Despite Modest Rebound
2:27

Preliminary Class 8 net orders rose 40% in May—but still remain 47% below last year’s levels

semitruck on the highway-2North American Class 8 preliminary net orders showed signs of life in May, increasing 40% month-over-month. However, the 12,000-unit total remains well below historical norms—47% lower than May 2024 and the weakest May showing since 2020. Through May, orders for the past 12 months stand at 260,355 units.

Key Takeaways:

  • Month-over-month improvement: Orders up 40% from April’s unusually low level.
  • Year-over-year decline: Down 47% from May 2024; well below the seven-year May average of 18,319 units.
  • Cumulative weakness: Net orders are down 32% year-to-date, with retail sales down 11% through April.

The Role of Tariffs and Regulatory Uncertainty

This slight uptick may reflect short-term relief from recently adjusted tariffs—particularly the steep rollback on Chinese imports, where duties were reduced from 145% to 30%. However, broader instability remains:

  • Tariff-related disruptions: Ongoing legal challenges and retaliatory actions from key trading partners like China continue to cloud purchasing confidence.
  • Potential new tariffs: Section 232 tariffs under discussion could directly affect truck components and final assemblies.
  • Upcoming EPA 2027 NOx standards: Environmental regulations on the horizon are adding a long-term layer of complexity to equipment investment decisions.

Dan Moyer cropped“Tariff volatility and uncertainty over the economy and the truck freight market continue to disrupt the North American Class 8 truck and tractor market,” noted Dan Moyer, FTR Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles.

Industry Outlook: Delayed Decisions, Heightened Caution

Fleet buyers appear to be in a holding pattern. With cost variables still unsettled—from tariffs to regulations—many are pushing major capital decisions further down the road. The result? A cautious market where even momentary rebounds are tempered by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

🔍 For more insight, visit the FTR Class 8 Truck Orders Chart
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