State of Freight TODAY

Building a Complete Picture of Freight Markets: Tons, Loads, and Ton Miles

Written by Eric Starks, Chairman of the Board | 3/3/25 2:15 PM

Understanding freight markets requires more than just tracking volume—it’s about breaking down the details at the commodity, mode, and movement level. At FTR, our modeling system provides a comprehensive view of freight movement by analyzing tons, ton miles, and loads originated across trucking, rail, and intermodal.

Breaking Down Freight at the Commodity Level

Our model tracks 209 commodity groups, analyzing the tons moved and their corresponding ton miles. This allows us to estimate the average length of haul across different modes of transportation, giving us valuable insights into how freight is shifting between trucking, rail, and intermodal.

But weight and distance alone don’t tell the full story. Different sectors measure freight in different ways:

  • Railroads track freight in loadings originated
  • Trucking measures freight in loads moved

To create an accurate forecast, we integrate both tonnage data and load data, providing a multi-dimensional view of freight flows.

Understanding Freight Density and Load Size

To bridge the gap between tonnage and actual load movements, our model incorporates density factors, allowing us to estimate the typical size per load for various commodities.

  • Railroads provide detailed data on density factors, allowing us to see changes in market trends over time.
  • We convert rail density factors into truck-equivalent loads based on cubic capacity, helping us understand modal shifts.

By tracking these metrics over time, we can observe shifts in load size, efficiency, and modal share, giving industry stakeholders a more precise understanding of how freight is evolving.

A Complete Freight Market Picture

This three-part framework creates a holistic view of freight markets, covering truck, rail, and intermodal movements. Within rail, we can further break it down into carload vs. intermodal, providing even deeper insight into how commodities flow across the supply chain.

Why This Matters for the Future

Freight markets aren’t static—they are constantly evolving. Our modeling process isn’t just about understanding historical trends; it’s about using forward-looking data to anticipate what’s next. By analyzing shifts in freight density, modal share, and load size, we help shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals stay ahead of industry changes.

Want to gain deeper insights into where freight markets are headed? Let’s talk.