Whew—what a rollercoaster of a week! From market whiplash to inflation surprises and ongoing trade tensions, last week was one for the economic history books. Here's what happened, what’s coming, and why it all matters.
The S&P 500 gained 1.8%, its best week since November.
Nasdaq jumped 2.1%, also marking its best week since late 2022.
The Dow climbed 1.6%, closing with a 619-point gain.
But even after the surge, all three indexes are still well below their February peaks:
S&P: -13%
Dow: -12%
Nasdaq: -17%
A 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) from President Trump sparked a major midweek rally.
Unfortunately, it’s only a partial break—China, which accounts for 13% of U.S. imports, is still facing stiff penalties.
Even with the pause, the U.S. remains in its highest tariff environment in a century.
Expect tariff-fueled inflation to kick in soon—especially for non-durables first, then durable goods later as inventories run out.
CPI dropped 0.1% in March, the weakest reading since May 2020.
Gasoline prices dropped 6.3%
Airfare: -5.3%
Lodging: -3.5%
Used cars: -0.7%
Core CPI (excluding food/energy) was up just 0.1%, the smallest increase in over four years.
But here’s the kicker: tariffs are lurking, and inflation could surge again depending on demand.
PPI fell 0.4% in March (unexpectedly).
Goods: -0.9%
Energy: -4.0% (driven by an 11.1% plunge in gasoline)
Services: -0.2%, the biggest drop since July 2024
Core PPI (excluding energy, food, and wholesale trade): up 0.1%
Steel prices, though? +7.1%
Consumers held up through earlier price spikes because the labor market stayed strong.
But if jobs weaken, economists warn of a real pullback in consumer spending.
Confidence is shaky—retail sales may spike short-term, thanks to pre-tariff “buy now” behavior, but softness is expected by May.
Here’s what’s on deck—and why it matters:
Retail Sales (April 16):
February was soft (+0.2%)
March expected to rise 1.4% from pre-tariff shopping.
But brace for a May drop—what goes up must come down.
Industrial Production (April 15):
February was strong (+0.7%) thanks to auto production.
But looming trade chaos may cool manufacturing investment and hiring.
Businesses are in a “wait-and-see” mode.
Housing Starts (April 17):
January saw a weather slump (-11.5%), followed by a rebound (+11.2%).
Permits stalled, and tariffs could push construction costs up.
March forecast: a slight decline to 1.416 million starts.
Markets may have ended on a high note, but the road ahead looks rocky. Between:
A possible inflation rebound,
Unpredictable trade policy,
And a fragile consumer outlook,
…the second half of the year is shaping up to be a real test of economic resilience.
Stay sharp, keep an eye on the data releases this week—and maybe don’t get too comfortable just yet.
Navigating What Comes Next
In this environment of uncertainty—marked by rising prices, volatile demand, and shifting trade policies—planning ahead is more important than ever. FTR’s unbiased forecasts offer decision-makers the clarity they need to stay grounded. With more than 40 years of industry expertise, FTR helps supply chain leaders understand how macroeconomic shifts will impact transportation demand, capacity, and costs—so they can prepare, not just react.