Economic Outlook: Tariffs, Trade Tensions, and Rising Uncertainty

Key Themes This Week

• Wall Street posted gains despite rising uncertainty.
• Hard data remains steady, but sentiment is deteriorating.
• Trade tensions with China are weighing on business outlooks.
• Early signs show slowing freight and consumer activity.

Markets Advance Amid Growing Risks

Strength came largely from mega-cap tech stocks. 73% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, boosting earnings growth projections from 8.1% to 9.7%.

However, cautious forward guidance reflects concerns over slowing consumer spending and tariff-driven inflation.

Hard Data Resilient, Sentiment Falters

• Consumer Confidence edged up to 52.2 but remains low.
• Federal Reserve Beige Book showed mixed economic activity:
  • 5 districts with slight growth.
  • 4 districts with slight declines.
  • Labor markets steady but with a hiring slowdown.
• Regional Surveys from Richmond and Kansas City signaled weaker manufacturing conditions.

Key Insight:
Durable goods orders surged 9.2% (driven by aircraft), but core capital goods orders rose only 0.3%, suggesting underlying softness.

Register for FTR’s State of Freight Economic Outlook webinar. Join economist Bill Witte and FTR experts Avery Vise and Jonathan Starks as they decode the latest economic signals and what they mean for freight. In a time of uncertainty, this is the clarity your business needs. Register here.

Housing Faces Affordability Challenges

• Existing Home Sales dropped 5.9%, remaining well below pre-pandemic levels.
• New Home Sales rose 7.4%, fueled by smaller, lower-priced homes.
• Mortgage Rates rose again, pushing mortgage applications down 12.7%.

Near-Term Outlook:
Housing is expected to remain weak under the pressure of high rates and rising inflation.

Freight and Trade Slowdown Signals

Trade disruptions are starting to surface:

• Freight vessel traffic from China to California ports fell 29% week-over-week and 44% year-over-year.
• Truckload volumes dropped sharply, according to DAT Freight and Analytics.

Early boosts to manufacturing from tariffs may reverse as input costs rise, squeezing margins and production.

Near-Term Economic Expectations

Big Picture:
The economy faces rising costs, slowing freight, and cautious businesses. Without quick resolution on trade, hiring and spending will slow, increasing the risk of recession by late 2025.

Strategic Takeaways

• Watch Freight Volumes: Early indicator of broader industrial slowdown.
• Plan for Higher Costs: Prepare for rising input expenses.
• Track Consumer Spending: Inflation could dampen durable goods demand.

Navigating What Comes Next

In this environment of uncertainty—marked by rising prices, volatile demand, and shifting trade policies—planning ahead is more important than ever. FTR’s unbiased forecasts offer decision-makers the clarity they need to stay grounded. With more than 40 years of industry expertise, FTR helps supply chain leaders understand how macroeconomic shifts will impact transportation demand, capacity, and costs—so they can prepare, not just react.