State of Freight TODAY

Economic Turbulence in February 2025: A Market Under Pressure

Written by FTR Analysts | 2/24/25 3:17 PM

Economic Outlook: Week of

February 17-21, 2025

The U.S. economy faced significant headwinds in mid-February 2025, with multiple indicators signaling growing instability. Equity markets tumbled, business confidence waned, and the housing sector struggled—all against the backdrop of new tariffs and uncertain federal policies. Below is a breakdown of the key economic developments shaping the current landscape.

Stock Market Reaction: A Harsh Sell-Off

  • S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, its worst performance in two months.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 748 points (1.7%).
  • Nasdaq Composite plummeted 2.2%.

Investor sentiment eroded as weaker-than-expected economic reports emerged, coupled with concerns over federal government policies. Businesses expressed apprehension over spending cuts, tariffs, and broader geopolitical risks. The latest S&P Global Market Intelligence report highlighted stalled business activity, with service-sector optimism taking a sharp downturn.

Tariff Impact: Inflation and Retaliation

  • New tariffs on lumber and forest products were announced, adding to levies already placed on semiconductors, cars, and pharmaceuticals.
  • Price hikes are already hitting consumers as suppliers preemptively raise costs ahead of the tariff implementation.
  • China retaliated swiftly, imposing tariffs on U.S. coal, farm equipment, and LNG exports, while restricting exports of critical rare earth minerals, such as tungsten and bismuth.

With China responsible for 40% of U.S. rare earth imports, the supply chain for essential industrial components is now under stress. Meanwhile, China accounts for 30% of all U.S. ocean imports, meaning the tariff battle could have widespread implications for global trade.

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Consumer Confidence: Walmart Signals Trouble

  • Walmart issued a warning on lower earnings expectations for the year.
  • As a retail bellwether, Walmart’s struggles suggest weakened consumer confidence.
  • Inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty appear to be tightening household budgets.

Given Walmart's role in selling essential goods, this decline could foreshadow a broader slowdown in consumer spending—particularly among working-class households.

Housing Market: Rising Mortgage Rates and Declining Confidence

  • Housing starts plunged 9.8%, the lowest in over a year.
  • Single-family home construction fell 1.8%.
  • Homebuilder confidence fell, with the NAHB Index dropping to 42, the weakest since September 2024.

With mortgage rates hovering near 7%, affordability remains a critical challenge. Builders fear that tariffs could drive up construction costs, particularly for lumber and other key materials. This situation is reminiscent of past periods when plywood prices exceeded $100 per sheet, creating severe financial strain on the industry.

Meanwhile, the multi-family sector has shown some resilience, though high interest rates and immigration policy changes pose headwinds. Existing home sales fell 4.9%, while the median home price climbed 4.8% to $396,900—marking the 19th consecutive month of price gains.

Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

The economic data from February 2025 underscores a fragile landscape. Trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and policy uncertainty are weighing on business and consumer sentiment. If these trends persist, the rest of 2025 could see slower growth, weaker consumer spending, and heightened financial market volatility.

The next few months will be critical in determining whether the economy can regain stability—or if it continues down a more uncertain path.