forecasting
SCI
Economic Outlook: Week of February 3-7, 2025
Markets Slide on Inflation and Growth Worries
U.S. stock markets ended the week on a downbeat note as concerns over inflation unsettled investors. The S&P 500 declined 0.9% on Friday, erasing earlier gains and marking one of the largest drops in 2025 so far. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 444 points (-1%), while a weak earnings report from Amazon dragged the Nasdaq Composite down 1.4%.
Adding to market jitters, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index showed inflation expectations rising to 4.3%—the highest level since 2023. This marked the second consecutive month of sharp increases, a troubling sign for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to balance economic growth with price stability.
The January jobs report presented a mixed picture. Employment growth slowed significantly compared to December, but wage growth exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.0%. These dynamics reflect an economy still resilient, but one increasingly grappling with cost pressures.
Manufacturing Sector Turns Positive After Two Years of Contraction
After nearly two years of contraction, the manufacturing sector finally entered expansion territory. The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 50.9%, marking the first expansionary reading since September 2022. Key takeaways include:
- New Orders: Jumped to 55.1%, a strong sign of demand improvement.
- Production: Increased to 52.5%, ending eight consecutive months of contraction.
- Prices: Rose to 54.9%, indicating moderate inflationary pressures.
- Employment: Rebounded to 50.3%, though staff reductions remain in some sectors.
Despite the improving outlook, significant headwinds remain. Supply chains in the transportation industry are tightening, while the chemical sector reports rising prices. The computer and electronics industry sees benefits from China’s economic stimulus efforts but continues to struggle with high costs. Meanwhile, automotive demand appears to be stabilizing, with manufacturers planning to expand hiring.
Impact on the Auto Industry and U.S. Consumers
The auto industry faces significant cost pressures. After decades of integrated supply chains with Canada and Mexico, shifting production back to the U.S. is neither simple nor cost-effective. Higher production costs and supply chain disruptions could increase the price of a new truck by $3,000, pushing vehicle ownership further out of reach for many Americans.
More broadly, U.S. workers continue to earn solid wages, but high vehicle and housing costs are pricing out a growing segment of the population. With inflation fears mounting and persistent supply chain challenges, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of economic complexity and uncertainty.
With shifting economic conditions and continued inflationary concerns, businesses and consumers will need to stay agile as the year progresses.
