As 2025 comes to a close, North American rail traffic continues to reflect a market searching for stable footing. With holiday seasonality limiting news flow, the focus turns squarely to what the data are telling us—and where risks are beginning to surface beneath the surface-level trends.
For the week ending December 13, 2025, total North American rail traffic declined 1.1% year-over-year, with both carloads and intermodal volumes remaining negative .
While the declines were modest, the composition of weakness across commodities remains an important signal as the industry looks ahead to 2026.
FTR will be on-site at the Midwest Association of Rail Shippers Winter Meeting in Chicago, January 13–15, where Joseph Towers and Derek Young will be available for industry discussions, client meetings, and strategic conversations about the freight outlook.
Most major carload commodity groups posted year-over-year declines during the week, reinforcing the ongoing softness tied to industrial production and construction-related demand.
Worst-performing commodity groups this week:
These categories show sustained underperformance relative to both 2024 levels and the five-year average, particularly for forest products and metallics. These groups have now been weak for much of 2024 and 2025, underscoring the prolonged drag from housing, infrastructure timing, and manufacturing investment cycles.
Agricultural volumes offered limited support, with gains in grain and grain mill products partially offset by declines in food products and farm products excluding grain. Automotive volumes remained volatile, with recent weeks showing notable downside despite relatively flat year-to-date performance.
Intermodal volumes declined 0.7% y/y overall, but the carrier-level data show important nuance beneath the headline number .
Beyond the traffic data, one of the most consequential developments discussed in the podcast is the Teamsters Rail Conference’s formal opposition to the proposed UP–NS merger .
The Teamsters, representing more than half of the unionized workforce at Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, cited insufficient commitments to job protection and safety. This position stands in contrast to the SMART-TD union’s earlier support, highlighting the growing complexity facing regulators as the Surface Transportation Board evaluates the proposal.
While the ultimate outcome remains uncertain, the scale and influence of the Teamsters’ opposition introduces a meaningful hurdle that market participants should not dismiss as procedural noise.
The final rail traffic data of 2025 point to a market that is not collapsing—but also not growing. Industrial carloads remain under pressure, intermodal is stabilizing unevenly, and policy and labor dynamics are adding a new layer of uncertainty.
For shippers, railroads, equipment providers, and investors, this reinforces the need to:
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To learn more or to discuss how these trends could impact your business in 2026, contact Joseph Towers at jtowers@ftrintel.com or explore FTR’s Rail subscription services.