--- title: "Rail Traffic Trends: A Weak Start to 2025 Amid Shifting Market Dynamics" description: Rail traffic in North America faces challenges in 2025 with carload declines and moderated intermodal growth, influenced by tariffs and shifting market dynamics. image: https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/02-February/RMU%20blog%20Feb%2025%20.png --- ![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/02-February/RMU%20blog%20Feb%2025%20.png?width=1600&height=500&name=RMU%20blog%20Feb%2025%20.png) intermodal imports Rail # Rail Traffic Trends: A Weak Start to 2025 Amid Shifting Market Dynamics ![Joseph Towers, Sr. Analyst, Rail](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Staff%20Photos/2024/Joseph%20B%20Towers_Square.jpg?width=48&height=48&name=Joseph%20B%20Towers_Square.jpg) Joseph Towers, Sr. Analyst, Rail February 25, 2025 Rail Traffic Trends: A Weak Start to 2025 Amid Shifting Market Dynamics 3:14 The North American rail industry saw a **1.2% decline** in total rail traffic last week, with **carloads falling 5.9%** while **intermodal traffic increased 3.5%**. These shifts highlight the ongoing challenges for rail freight, particularly in carload traffic, as well as the evolving landscape of intermodal demand. ### **Carload Traffic: Declines Extend into 2025** Carload traffic continues to struggle, extending the weakness observed throughout 2024. The concerning trend is that **even commodities that had been growth drivers last year are now in decline**: - **Grain**: After finishing 2024 up **4.8%**, it fell **9.7% y/y** this past week and **6.1% over the past four weeks**. - **Chemicals**: After a **3.1% gain** last year, it dropped **5.6% this past week** and **1.8% over the past four weeks**.![FTR infographic_Carload Traffic- Declines Extend into 2025](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/02-February/FTR%20infographic_Carload%20Traffic-%20Declines%20Extend%20into%202025.jpg?width=465&height=262&name=FTR%20infographic_Carload%20Traffic-%20Declines%20Extend%20into%202025.jpg) - **Other significant declines**: - **Metal products**: ↓ **12.0%** - **Coal**: ↓ **7.5%** - **Forest products**: ↓ **4.3%** The **only bright spot** in carload traffic this past week was **petroleum products**, which posted a **3.7% y/y gain**. ### **Intermodal Growth: Moderation After a Strong January** Intermodal traffic remains **positive y/y**, but **growth has moderated** in recent weeks. The primary driver of the earlier strength was an **inventory pull-forward, **partially in response to **anticipated tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada**. This effect was particularly visible among western U.S. carriers: - **BNSF** has seen **three consecutive weeks of moderating y/y growth**. - **Union Pacific (UP)** has posted **five straight weeks of slowing growth**. ![11 Podcast Graphics - Updated 5.28.24(1)](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/11%20Podcast%20Graphics%20-%20Updated%205.28.24(1).png?width=1080&height=1080&name=11%20Podcast%20Graphics%20-%20Updated%205.28.24(1).png) ### Don't miss an episode! ## Rail Market Update Podcast This article was created from an excerpt from FTR's biweekly rail podcast with Joseph Towers. [ Listen now ](https://www.ftrintel.com/rail-podcast-0) --- ### **Tariff-Driven Surge in Imports** One major factor influencing intermodal trends has been **the spike in imports ahead of tariff increases**. The **Port of Long Beach reported its busiest January ever**, moving **952,733 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)**—a **41.4% increase** from last year and **18.9% above the previous record from January 2022**. This surge was **primarily driven by retailers frontloading shipments** to get ahead of expected tariff hikes on imports from **China, Mexico, and Canada, **and the possibility of an East and Gulf Coast port strike. While a **30-day pause** on tariffs for Canada and Mexico has been granted, **China did not receive a reprieve**, leading to: - **A 10% increase in duties on Chinese goods**. - **Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports** of **LNG, coal, and farm equipment**. - **Restrictions on exports of key rare earth minerals** like **tungsten and bismuth**. ### **Looking Ahead** While **intermodal growth remains positive**, it is expected to **moderate further** as the impact of frontloaded imports fades. **Carload traffic**, on the other hand, faces **an uphill battle** given the broad-based weakness across key commodities. Additionally, **trade tensions and tariffs** will continue to shape freight movements, potentially creating volatility in demand for both **rail carload and intermodal services**. As we move deeper into 2025, **close attention to macroeconomic trends, inventory levels, and policy developments** will be critical in assessing **where rail freight demand is headed next**.   [![FTR_SOF Today 1-1](https://content.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/FTR_SOF%20Today%201-1.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=FTR_SOF%20Today%201-1.jpg) ](https://www.ftrintel.com/state-of-freight-today) Stay up-to-date with FTRs free content!  Subscribe to our State of Freight Updates today. [![2025 FTR Conference_1-1 graphics_Save the Date no tagline](https://content.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Conference/Social/2025%20FTR%20Conference_1-1%20graphics_Save%20the%20Date%20no%20tagline.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=2025%20FTR%20Conference_1-1%20graphics_Save%20the%20Date%20no%20tagline.jpg) ](https://www.ftrconference.com/home) Join us for the must-attend event for supply chain professionals and gain the intelligence you need to drive your business forward! [![FTR blog_subscriptions_RU download report](https://content.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/FTR%20blog_subscriptions_RU%20download%20report.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=FTR%20blog_subscriptions_RU%20download%20report.jpg) ](https://www.ftrintel.com/rail-update) Want to see the type of detailed information FTR an provide?  Download a sample of our Rail Update report. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.ftrintel.com%2Frmu-feb-25-2025](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.ftrintel.com%2Frmu-feb-25-2025) ## Keep reading [![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/Blogs/Blog%20images/2026/July/_Class%208%20July%202026%20blog.png?width=1600&height=500&name=_Class%208%20July%202026%20blog.png) class 8 trucks forecasting ### Class 8 Orders Surge Again as Industry Nears 2026 Production Capacity ](https://today.ftrintel.com/class-8-july-2026) [![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/Blogs/Blog%20images/2026/June/_RMU%20June%2026%202026%20blog.png?width=1600&height=500&name=_RMU%20June%2026%202026%20blog.png) intermodal carload Rail ### Rail Traffic Holds Steady While Intermodal Extends Its Winning Streak ](https://today.ftrintel.com/rmu-june-26-2026) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Joseph Towers, Sr. Analyst, Rail", "url" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/author/joseph-towers" }, "dateModified" : "2025-02-25T15:11:06.220Z", "datePublished" : "2025-02-25T15:10:51.000Z", "headline" : "Rail Traffic Trends: A Weak Start to 2025 Amid Shifting Market Dynamics", "image" : [ "https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/02-February/RMU%20blog%20Feb%2025%20.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/rmu-feb-25-2025", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/FTR%20Logos%20and%20Icons/FTR_Logo_Primary_FullColor.png" }, "name" : "FTR | Transportation Intelligence" } } ```