Trade Tensions and Traffic Trends: What’s Shaping Surface Transportation in Mid-2025

This week’s FTR Rail and Intermodal Update podcast explored how shifting trade policies, evolving global sourcing patterns, and changing port utilization are influencing U.S. transportation demand. As we cross the halfway point of 2025, the data reveals important directional cues for both rail and intermodal stakeholders.

🎯 New Tariffs Shake Up Commodity Flows

• A 50% tariff threat against Brazil triggered countermeasures targeting U.S. exports like refined fuels, machinery, and aircraft parts.
• Copper imports are now under pressure, with a proposed 50% duty—joining existing tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• A preliminary deal with Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and 40% on transshipped Chinese goods.
• Additional reciprocal tariffs, effective August 1, were announced for several Asian countries.

Strategic Insight: These policy shifts continue to disrupt established trade lanes and could recalibrate which commodities are moving—and how.

📦 Imports Shift, but Volume Remains Steady

While containerized imports from China dropped 11.6% YoY in April and May, this loss was largely offset by gains from countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and India. The resulting trade realignment suggests:

• Sourcing diversification is in full swing.
• Some Chinese exporters may be relabeling goods to circumvent tariffs via third countries.
• The role of countries like Vietnam (already the #6 U.S. trading partner) is expanding meaningfully.

Strategic Insight: The shift away from China doesn’t necessarily mean fewer imports—it may just means imports from elsewhere, creating new implications for inland freight flows.

Coastal Port Usage Reverts to Pre-Disruption Trends

With pandemic-era disruptions and 2023–2024 anomalies behind us, East and Gulf Coast ports are now handling a larger share of imports:

• East Coast: Highest import share since Sept 2023.
• Gulf Coast: Highest since at least 2013.
• West Coast: Lowest share since Feb 2023.

This aligns with sourcing changes: China exports dominate West Coast lanes, while India and Southeast Asia more often flow through East Coast ports.

Implication for Rail vs. Truck: Port geography matters. Long-haul inland moves from LA often go by rail. Shorter hauls from places like Savannah or Houston skew toward trucking.

Want a front-row seat to how economic data actually drives freight decisions? Check out our Industry Connections podcast with FTR’s Joseph Towers as he breaks down how real-world shipper behavior and railcar loadings are changing—and what that means for your transportation strategy. Click here!

📉 What to Watch

• Tariff effects will likely evolve into broader supply chain shifts.
• Port choice continues to influence domestic modal selection.
• Rail performance may soften in the near term due to 2024 Canadian strike comps, followed by a potential YoY spike this fall.

📌 For a deeper dive into these trends and how they affect your freight strategies, replay the latest FTR webinar and connect with our analysts. And don’t forget—FTR’s Conference is just around the corner. Join us in September to hear how top analysts and industry leaders are navigating the months ahead.