Rail Markets This Week: Tariff Shakeups, Intermodal Slowdown, and Carload Gains

⚖️ Major Tariff Ruling: What Changed?

• 🛑 U.S. Court of International Trade blocked most Trump-era tariffs, including:
  • 10% baseline tariffs
  • Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico
• 📉 Result: Average U.S. import tariff rate fell from 14.4% to 4.3% back to 14.4%.
• 🔮 Outlook: Short-term cost relief for importers, but long-term uncertainty remains

EU Tariff Threat Still Looms

• ⚠️ New proposal: 50% tariffs on European Union imports (delayed until July 9)
• 📦 High-value EU goods at risk: Pharmaceuticals, medical devices, autos
• 📈 Would raise EU import tariff rate from 14.4% to 21.3%

🚛 Rail Traffic Snapshot 

Intermodal volumes declined 0.8% year over year, marking only the second drop seen in 2025. This pullback appears to be the delayed result of Chinese tariffs implemented in April, which are just now rippling through the U.S. freight system. The impact was most pronounced among Western railroads, particularly BNSF and Union Pacific.

Meanwhile, carload traffic remained solid, with strong year-over-year growth in several key commodities. Coke led the pack with a 10% increase, followed closely by crushed stone, sand, and gravel, which rose 9.3%. Grain shipments were up 9.2%, coal increased 8.2%, and metal scrap climbed 6.8%.

Not all commodities fared as well. Non-metallic minerals dropped 9.6% year over year, while finished petroleum products fell 4.4%, and pulp and paper shipments declined 4.3%.

🛤 Supreme Court Clears Uinta Basin Oil Rail Project

• ✅ Supreme Court ruled in favor of STB, approving an 88-mile crude oil rail line in Utah
• ❌ Reverses 2023 D.C. Circuit block based on environmental concerns
• 🏗 Project now cleared for construction to move forward

📩 Questions or feedback? Reach out to Joseph Towers at jtowers@ftrintel.com

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