What October’s SCI Tells Us About a Market in Transition

FTR’s latest Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for October moved slightly into positive territory at 0.3, improving from September’s reading of -0.5. On the surface, this suggests that shipper conditions are stable—if not mildly favorable—as we close the year. But the underlying data reveals a more complicated picture, one that shippers should watch closely as 2026 approaches.

A Temporary Window of Relief

Most market factors showed incremental improvement in October. Capacity remains generally available, fuel prices have cooperated, and freight demand continues to reflect a subdued macro environment. Yet freight rates were strong enough to offset many of these benefits, leaving the overall outlook neutral through mid-2026.

However, this month’s analysis comes with an important caveat: the government shutdown delayed key economic data releases, limiting full visibility into the broader freight environment. More clarity is expected over the next several weeks.

A Market Reset May Be Underway

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, highlighted the deeper implications behind this month’s reading:

“Although we still lack comprehensive insights into the state of the U.S. economy, a recent Federal Reserve revision of industrial production estimates implies that freight demand is even weaker than we thought. That’s good news for shippers in the near term as it suggests that freight capacity might still exceed volume significantly. But it raises the prospect of a faster and stronger market tightening when freight demand does recover.”

He added that the freight market “has entered an inevitable transition phase that could yield volatility in the coming months.”

For shippers, this combination—near-term stability and long-term uncertainty—creates both opportunity and risk. The window for favorable conditions may narrow quickly when the demand cycle begins to turn.

 To access charts suitable to accompany this article, visit
 https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index 

Stay Ahead of Market Turning Points

The FTR Shippers Update, published monthly, delivers the deeper analysis behind each SCI movement—including rate pressures, macroeconomic dynamics, and commodity-level indicators. The December edition includes an important breakdown of how revised industrial production data changes the outlook for truck freight.

If your organization depends on anticipating freight shifts—not reacting to them—the Shippers Update is one of the most valuable tools you can add to your planning process.

Subscribe to the Shippers Update and stay ahead of market volatility with timely, data-driven insight.  Learn more about the report and download a sample report while you are there!

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