Fuel Relief Masks a Tougher Outlook for Shippers

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) showed a modestly positive reading of 1.0 in December, improving from -2.9 in November. The gain was driven primarily by a sharp drop in diesel prices, which temporarily offset tightening freight capacity.

But beneath that improvement, the freight environment for shippers continues to weaken.

Capacity is tightening as freight demand strengthens, and the excess capacity that supported shippers over the last two years is fading. That shift points toward rising transportation costs and greater volatility in 2026 and beyond.

As Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking, noted in the release, "The excess capacity that had favored shippers for a couple of years or more is history, and stresses – even if brief – will cause hiccups that result in higher costs."

That dynamic is central to FTR’s latest Freight•cast forecast. Even modest growth in freight demand can tighten markets quickly when capacity is no longer abundant.

What’s Driving the Change

The SCI measures four core factors shaping shipper conditions:

• Freight demand
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices

   

December’s improvement came almost entirely from fuel costs. The other indicators are moving in a less favorable direction for shippers.

In practical terms, that means:

• Higher rate pressure as capacity tightens
• More volatility during seasonal surges
• Less negotiating leverage with carriers
• Greater importance of forecasting and planning

What This Means for Transportation Strategy

For shippers, the takeaway is straightforward:

Short-term improvements driven by fuel costs do not change the longer-term trend. The freight market is shifting back toward carriers, and proactive planning will matter more than ever.

FTR’s Shippers Update explores these changes in detail, including revised truck freight volume expectations and what they mean for transportation budgets, carrier negotiations, and supply chain planning.

See What’s Next in the FTR Shippers Update

If your team is responsible for transportation budgets, carrier negotiations, or supply chain planning, the FTR Shippers Update gives you clear, actionable forecasts so you can plan with confidence.

Inside each monthly update you’ll get:

• Freight demand forecasts by commodity
• Truck capacity and rate outlooks
• Fuel cost trends and impact analysis
• 24-month Freight•cast economic forecasts
• Analyst commentary on what to do next

👉 Download a sample report to see how FTR helps manufacturers save money on truck, rail, and intermodal transportation while planning strategically for the next 24 months.

Want to see the data?

Explore the charts and learn more about the Shippers Conditions Index here:
https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index