A Quieter Warning Sign for Shippers — And Why It Matters Heading into 2026

If you’re a shipper watching the freight market closely, November delivered a signal worth paying attention to.

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) fell to -2.9 in November, down sharply from a near-neutral reading of 0.3 in October. That move may look modest on the surface, but it reflects something more meaningful underneath: the freight market is tightening faster than many expected.

What changed so quickly?

The SCI aggregates four forces that shape the shipper environment:

• Freight demand
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices

In November, several of those variables moved in the wrong direction at the same time. Freight rates pushed higher, capacity tightened, and fuel costs briefly rose — enough to tip overall conditions into negative territory.

While falling diesel prices have helped cushion the impact, that relief is temporary. The broader trend points toward a market that is becoming less forgiving for shippers as we move deeper into 2026.

Capacity is doing the heavy lifting

One of the more important takeaways is what recent data is saying about capacity. According to FTR’s analysis, van spot rates in December were notably stronger than seasonal norms. Even if that strength fades, it suggests a tighter baseline than most shippers had planned for.

Preliminary employment data is reinforcing that message, pointing to less available trucking capacity than headline figures imply. In other words, the market may already be closer to constraint than it appears.

As Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking, noted in the release, "We have been forecasting a freight market shift in 2026 that would be mildly unfavorable for shippers, and trends and data over just the last month offer greater confidence in that outlook."

To access charts suitable to accompany this release, visit https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index. 

Why this matters for planning

Negative SCI readings don’t mean disruption is guaranteed. They do mean the margin for error is shrinking.

For shippers, this environment raises practical questions:

• Are contract assumptions still realistic if capacity tightens further?
• How exposed are budgets if rates firm sooner than expected?
• Which commodities and lanes are likely to feel pressure first?

These are exactly the questions the Shippers Update is designed to help answer.

Go deeper with the Shippers Update

The January Shippers Update, published earlier this month, expands on the trucking capacity outlook and the forces likely to shape shipper conditions through 2026. Rather than reacting after the market moves, it gives teams a framework to evaluate risk ahead of time — lane by lane, mode by mode.

If you want to see how this analysis works in practice, we recommend starting with a sample copy of the Shippers Update. It provides a clear view into how freight demand, rates, capacity, and fuel trends are coming together — and how shippers can prepare before conditions tighten further.