Shippers Catch a Brief Tailwind Amid Shifting Trade Winds

FTR’s latest Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) ticked up slightly in January, offering a momentary sigh of relief for shippers. The index moved into positive territory at +0.6, up from -1.8 in December. While this reflects mildly favorable conditions—such as stable rates, utilization, and volumes—rising fuel prices nearly erased those gains.

What's Driving the Index?

The SCI aggregates four key freight market variables:

• Freight demand

• Freight rates

• Fleet capacity

• Fuel costs

Each month, these inputs are combined into a single score reflecting the overall health of the freight environment for shippers. A score above zero signals favorable conditions; below zero, tougher terrain ahead.

The Outlook: Neutral, But Not Without Nuance

Though technically negative beyond March, the forecast remains close to neutral through the remainder of the horizon.

As Avery Vise, VP of Trucking at FTR, noted: “Broadly speaking, the freight market is still fairly comfortable for shippers despite softening over the past few months. However, conditions vary depending on freight profiles... it will be advantageous for the whole supply chain to have clarity and certainty soon.”

The variability is particularly stark across modal and equipment types:

• Flatbed markets are heating up.

• Dry van and refrigerated markets are sluggish.

• Rail intermodal is running strong.

• Carload volumes are only marginally above 2024 levels.

Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence

Shippers are facing increasing volatility—from changing fuel costs to shifting tariffs and modal imbalances. FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index, powered by over 30 years of transportation data and the proprietary Freight•cast™ model, provides an objective lens to assess risk and plan strategically. In times of uncertainty, timely and data-driven insights can be the difference between reactive decisions and resilient strategies.

📊 To explore the latest SCI charts and commentary:
View the Shippers Conditions Index

Learn more at www.FTRintel.com, follow @FTRintel on X, and connect on LinkedIn.

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