Diesel Price Shock Raises Risk of Record-Low Shipper Conditions

A sharp surge in diesel prices is adding new pressure to the U.S. freight market — and it could push overall shipper conditions to the worst levels ever recorded.

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) was already expected to weaken in the near term as trucking capacity tightens. But the recent spike in diesel prices has introduced a new variable that could dramatically shift the freight environment for shippers.

According to FTR’s latest analysis, the SCI could potentially fall below its previous record low if higher fuel costs begin reducing capacity and pushing freight rates higher.

A Diesel Shock with Major Implications

During the first week of March, the national average diesel price surged more than 96 cents per gallon, marking the largest single-week increase ever recorded.

Fuel volatility has historically played a major role in freight market conditions. Diesel prices influence everything from carrier operating costs to equipment utilization and fleet capacity decisions.

If higher fuel costs begin sidelining capacity — particularly among smaller carriers — the impact could cascade through the market:

• Freight rates could rise as available trucks decline
• Carrier pricing power could strengthen
• Shippers could face tighter capacity and higher transportation budgets

Those dynamics could push the SCI to levels even more negative than those seen during the freight surge of early 2022.

Freight Market Tightening Adds to the Risk

Unlike the conditions seen in 2022, when the freight market had already begun cooling from the extreme demand of 2021, today’s market is tightening again.

A tightening freight environment combined with rising fuel costs creates the conditions for a rapid shift in market balance.

 FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise highlighted this risk in the latest analysis: “We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers.”

 “The freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022. However, the freight market then had started to cool… while today’s freight market — especially in trucking — is tightening.” 

If the diesel surge continues and capacity tightens further, the SCI could move beyond the record –23.1 reading recorded in March 2022, which represented the most unfavorable conditions for shippers on record.

What the Shippers Conditions Index Measures

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index summarizes the health of the full-load freight environment by combining four major factors:

• Freight demand
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices

These elements are combined into a single index designed to capture the overall transportation environment facing shippers.

Positive readings indicate favorable conditions for shippers, while negative readings signal a more difficult freight market.

You can also view the latest Shippers Conditions Index charts and release here:
https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index 

Why Market Visibility Matters

Periods of volatility — especially when fuel costs and freight capacity shift quickly — create significant challenges for shippers trying to plan transportation budgets and manage carrier relationships.

Understanding how macroeconomic forces, fuel markets, and capacity trends interact is critical for making informed decisions.

That is precisely why many transportation and supply chain teams rely on FTR’s Shippers Update.

Stay Ahead of Freight Market Changes

FTR’s Shippers Update provides a forward-looking view of truck freight market conditions, helping shippers anticipate changes before they impact budgets and carrier networks.

Each monthly update includes:

• Forecasts for truck freight demand and capacity
• Analysis of freight rates and market balance
• Fuel price impacts on the freight market
• Expert commentary on emerging risks and trends

For companies responsible for transportation budgeting and procurement strategy, this type of forward visibility can make the difference between reacting to the market and planning ahead.

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