March Brings Marginal Improvement to Shippers Conditions Index

FTR’s latest reading of its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) shows a marginal improvement in March, rising from -0.3 in February to +0.1. While this keeps the index in essentially neutral territory, the shift reflects a nuanced balancing act in freight market dynamics.

A Mixed Market for Shippers

In March, shippers benefited from:

• Falling diesel prices, which eased operating costs
• Slightly reduced equipment utilization, offering more fluidity in freight movements

However, these positives were offset by:

• Stronger freight volumes, which added pressure
• Less favorable rates, reflecting tightening in some lanes

These countervailing forces left the overall freight environment relatively stable—but with warning signs on the horizon.

Expert Insight: Tariffs and Capacity Risks

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, noted:

“Uncertainty over tariffs is a risk for the economy, but an expected sluggishness in the freight market in the near term should bring some benefits to shippers in terms of fluidity and pricing. The longer-term consequences are less clear, however. For example, one consequence of a sharp drop in freight volume might be loss of trucking capacity, which could lead to a tighter market in 2026. Another issue to watch is whether stricter enforcement of truck drivers’ English language skills results in a meaningful hit to the supply of drivers.”

This underscores a key theme: while the present may feel manageable, longer-term capacity risks are quietly building.

Context: What the SCI Measures

The Shippers Conditions Index evaluates four critical components:

• Freight demand
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices

These are combined into a single score reflecting the relative favorability of the market for shippers. A positive index suggests improving or favorable conditions; a negative score flags challenges.

The latest FTR Shippers Update, released May 7, digs deeper into how tariffs may reshape the freight landscape—particularly whether they could help absorb surplus capacity.

Explore the Full SCI Report and Data Visuals:
📊 Access the latest SCI charts and data

Learn more at www.FTRintel.com, follow @FTRintel on X, and connect on LinkedIn.

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