Shippers See Relief as Conditions Improve for the First Time Since Fall

Stable fuel prices and softer freight rates lifted FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) into positive territory in August — a rare sign of relief for shippers navigating a volatile freight market.

A Return to Positive Territory

After several months of negative readings, FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index rose to 1.3 in August, up from -2.0 in July.

• The improvement was largely driven by stable fuel costs and moderating freight rates, providing the most favorable conditions since late 2024.
• While welcome news for shippers, FTR expects these conditions to be temporary, with modestly tighter capacity and firmer rates expected in the coming months.

“As we suggested last month, the crackdown on truck drivers with inadequate English skills and on foreign nationals holding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses will tighten freight capacity to some degree,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “However, lots of questions remain over the scope of that impact, and we are adjusting our assumptions only slightly until we see signs of a market impact.”

Emerging Pressures on Driver Supply

The October edition of FTR’s Shippers Update expanded on this issue, highlighting evidence that driver capacity may already be tighter than previously believed.

• Increased scrutiny of driver eligibility and licensing could lead to further tightening.
• Any uptick in freight demand could amplify this constraint, shifting the balance of power in the freight market back toward carriers.

Why It Matters

Shippers use the SCI as a forward-looking barometer to anticipate cost pressures, identify negotiation windows, and plan contract strategies.

• With the index trending upward, shippers currently have a short-term window of opportunity to secure capacity before potential tightening ahead.
• Monitoring SCI trends helps organizations plan proactively, rather than reacting to rate or capacity shocks once they occur.

👉 Want to see the full charts and analysis? Visit FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index.

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