Shippers See Some Relief in July—But Challenges Are Lurking Ahead

If you’re a shipper, July brought a bit of good news—though not quite enough to tip the balance into “favorable” territory. FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved from -3.6 in June to -2.0 in July. That’s still in negative territory, but the direction is encouraging.

So, what’s driving this shift?

• Freight dynamics were more favorable for shippers.
• Rates hit their most favorable point since last October.
• Fuel costs, however, continued to be a headwind.

Looking Ahead: Near Neutral, But Risks Are Rising

The SCI outlook is hanging close to neutral for much of 2026—but several factors could push conditions back into more negative territory:

• Driver supply pressures: Preliminary payroll data suggests trucking capacity is already tighter than we thought.
• Regulatory crackdowns: New scrutiny on foreign nationals holding CDLs and English language proficiency could thin out available drivers.
• Insurance costs: Record-high premiums add to the burden carriers face.
• Tariffs: The new 25% tariff on heavy trucks may limit fleets’ ability to expand once demand picks back up.

As Avery Vise, FTR’s VP of Trucking, puts it: “A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”

Why the SCI Matters

The Shippers Conditions Index blends four key factors—freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel prices—into a single score that tracks market health for shippers. Positive numbers signal a favorable environment; negative numbers mean headwinds.

With July’s reading, we’re still in challenging territory—but the improvement suggests shippers are catching their breath, at least temporarily.

👉 Want to see the full charts and analysis? Visit FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index.

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Free Webinar – October 2, 2025
In It Together: 2026 Economic and Freight Market Outlook for the Food Industry

Join Food Shippers of America and FTR’s experts—Eric Starks, Avery Vise, and Joseph Towers—for timely insights on how tariffs, economic pressures, and shifting demand will shape the 2026 freight market. Moderated by Darica Schneider, President of FSA, this free webinar will help shippers and carriers prepare for capacity shifts and find stability in uncertain times. Register today to save your spot!