Shippers Conditions Index Improves in November Due Mostly to Fuel Costs

What November’s Shippers Conditions Index Means for Supply Chain Leaders

As supply chain leaders, it’s essential to stay ahead of the market’s ever-changing dynamics. The latest Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) from FTR offers a glimpse into the evolving freight environment, highlighting a modestly favorable market for shippers in November. The SCI rose by a point to 2.3, reflecting lower fuel costs and a slight loosening of capacity. However, these improvements were tempered by less favorable freight rates and volumes.

The question we now face is: where do we go from here?

The Shifting Freight Landscape

For the past two years, shippers enjoyed a relatively favorable environment, with the SCI staying positive except for two instances when diesel prices spiked. Those conditions are now giving way to a more balanced market. As Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking, explains:

"The freight market has entered a transitional phase in which shippers should no longer expect consistently favorable conditions as has been the case over the past two years. During that period, the SCI was negative only twice, and in both cases a spike in diesel prices was the key factor. As we enter 2025, shippers should expect a more balanced market but not one that is especially tough, at least not by the standards of years like 2021 and 2018. We still forecast SCI readings close to neutral over the next couple of years with only a marginally negative bias.”

This shift doesn’t spell disaster, but it does signal the end of the "easy" market conditions many have grown accustomed to.

Key Takeaways for Supply Chain Leaders

1. Fuel Costs Remain a Wildcard
   Lower fuel costs helped drive November’s modest improvement, but volatility in energy markets means this factor could quickly swing in the opposite direction. Staying agile in response to fuel price fluctuations will be crucial.

2. Capacity is Easing – For Now
   While marginal loosening of capacity provided some relief, this may not be a permanent trend. Monitoring shifts in trucking capacity and adjusting strategies accordingly will be vital in the months ahead.

3. Balanced, But Not Easy
   The freight market is transitioning to a state of equilibrium. Although the SCI suggests a more neutral environment, challenges like freight rates and volume pressures remain. Leaders should prepare for a market that demands precision in planning and execution.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect in 2025

As we move into 2025, the forecast remains steady: SCI readings are expected to hover near neutral with a marginally negative bias. This means the market won’t be as favorable as it has been in recent years, but it’s also unlikely to reach the high-pressure levels seen in 2021 or 2018.

For shippers, this is an opportunity to refine strategies and focus on resilience. By staying informed, leveraging data, and building flexibility into operations, we can navigate this new phase with confidence.

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To access charts suitable to accompany this press release: https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index