Special Look at Trade and Tariffs: Navigating Uncertainty in 2025

With minimal economic data released last week, it's the perfect time to delve into trade and tariff dynamics—a topic likely to influence global supply chains and consumer behavior significantly in the near future.

The future plan for tariff's will become more clear in the next few weeks, but let's look at what a tariff is and how these conversations have played out over the last eight years.

The Trump Tariff Approach

Former President Donald Trump embraced tariffs as a core component of his economic strategy. Known for calling himself "a tariff man," he implemented taxes on $380 billions of imported goods during his first term and advocated for broader measures, such as a universal tariff. His rationale centered on safeguarding American jobs and boosting domestic manufacturing, though economists widely dispute these claims.

In his last term, Trump’s trade policy significantly impacted various industries:

• Motor Vehicles and Parts: Prices rose by 2.3%.
• Furniture and Kitchen Goods: Costs climbed 7.2%.
• Washing Machines: Prices nearly doubled.

Major retailers like Walmart and AutoZone warned of potential price increases, reflecting the broader inflationary effects of tariffs.

Economic Impacts and Challenges

Tariffs often generate revenue but can have unintended consequences:

• Revenue Generation: Tariff revenues under Trump totaled $89.1 billion, while the Biden administration collected $144.3 billion by maintaining and expanding tariffs.
• Inflation and Consumer Costs: Studies suggest tariffs added between $6.9 billion and $7.2 billion in costs for U.S. consumers in 2018 alone, with companies passing expenses through price hikes.
• Industry-Specific Struggles: While some sectors, like primary metals, experienced initial job growth, others, such as automotive manufacturing, faced significant losses due to rising production costs.

Global Trade Dynamics

The complexities of global supply chains exacerbate the effects of tariffs. Retaliatory measures by trade partners, like China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, have led to billions in subsidies to affected industries, further inflating costs.

For businesses operating on thin margins, absorbing tariff costs is rarely an option. Instead, they must choose between raising prices or shifting supply chains—a challenging prospect in an interconnected global economy.

FTR's Role in Supporting Industries

At FTR, we aim to cut through the noise, offering unbiased analyses to help businesses adapt to shifting trade policies. By understanding the implications of tariffs and their effects on supply chains, we empower clients to make strategic, informed decisions.  We would like to invite you to schedule a complimentary Market Update Call with the FTR Experts.