Trucking Conditions Index Plunges in June as Market Volatility Persists

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) posted its lowest reading of 2025 in June, dropping to -1.83 after May’s strong 3.56. The sharp swing underscores the continued volatility facing carriers, driven largely by freight rates and fuel prices.

Key Takeaways from June’s TCI

• Steep decline: The index dropped from the strongest level since October 2022 to the weakest point this year.
• Primary drivers: Lower freight rates and higher fuel prices were the biggest contributors to the June decline.
• Forecast outlook: Conditions are expected to settle closer to neutral through most of the second half of 2025.

Analyst Perspective

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, noted:

“We still forecast a steadily but only modestly more favorable market for carriers next year. However, swings in freight volume and fuel prices – and to a lesser extent, freight rates – continue to generate volatility in trucking conditions. Capacity utilization has been the most stable factor, but it has been only marginally beneficial to trucking companies. So far, the economy is weathering tariffs and other stresses better than anticipated, and our latest freight outlook is not as weak as it was previously. At least in the near term, though, we still believe forecast risks are weighted more to the downside than the upside.”

What the TCI Measures

The TCI reflects the overall health of the U.S. trucking market by tracking five major conditions:

• Freight volumes
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices
• Financing costs

Positive readings suggest favorable conditions for carriers, while negative scores indicate tougher market environments. Readings near zero align with a neutral environment, and double-digit swings point to significant industry shifts.

Broader Market Context

Details of the June TCI and broader industry insights are available in the August issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, which also examines the first month of driver out-of-service violations tied to English proficiency requirements.

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The trucking industry will be a central focus at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference, September 8–11 in Indianapolis, with two full days dedicated to freight forecasts and discussions about trucking on September 8th and 9th.