Trucking Market Conditions Hold Steady in October: What Carriers Should Watch Next

Executive Context

October’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) delivered a marginal improvement—rising to 0.89 from 0.42 in September. At face value, the increase suggests stability. But a deeper look at the underlying conditions reveals a more nuanced story for carriers planning capacity decisions heading into 2026.

Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking, framed the environment this way: the recent 43-day federal data shutdown and a major Federal Reserve revision to industrial production are altering how analysts, economists, and carriers interpret freight demand trajectories. These changes introduce operational questions that go beyond a single month’s index reading.

What Is Driving the TCI Right Now?

The TCI compiles market conditions across five critical operational factors:

• Freight volumes
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices
• Financing costs

Readings near zero signal a neutral environment; positive values indicate improving conditions for carriers.

With October’s slight increase, the index remains in mildly positive territory, suggesting balanced operating dynamics—but the composition of those dynamics is shifting.

Key Insight #1: The Data Disruption Matters

The federal statistical blackout delayed the flow of core economic data across manufacturing, consumer spending, industrial output, and other freight-sensitive sectors.

Why this matters:

• FTR’s Freight•cast methodology depends heavily on these indicators to calibrate near-term freight expectations.
• As the data pipeline resumes, previously stable trends may look different when the full picture emerges.

FTR anticipates forecast adjustments as refreshed data is validated and incorporated.

Key Insight #2: Industrial Production Was Weaker Than Believed

The Federal Reserve’s newly revised historical estimates show industrial production—especially in capital goods tied to future manufacturing activity—was significantly weaker in 2022–2024 than earlier reported.

Implications for carriers:

• Freight tied to industrial output may remain under pressure longer than expected.
• Utilization targets may need recalibration, potentially necessitating more capacity rationalization to maintain healthy operating conditions.
• The market’s path back to stronger rates still hinges on sustained freight demand growth, not just supply-side tightening.

Vise summarized the challenge succinctly: “Carriers might need to reduce capacity even more than we previously thought… but the only true fix for the trucking industry’s doldrums is stronger and sustained freight demand.”

Market Monitoring Tools to Watch

The October data and broader contextual changes are explored in depth in the December Trucking Update (published November 25), which includes:

• Revised industrial production dynamics
• Load volume trends
• Capacity environment updates
• Rate expectations
• Macro drivers shaping 2026 freight activity

This monthly subscription analysis provides the detailed visibility required to make informed network and asset decisions amid a shifting data landscape. Download a Sample Report Today

Where Industry Leaders Can Stay Informed

FTR provides multiple access points for ongoing strategic monitoring:

• Trucking Conditions Index charts: https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index

• State of Freight Podcast – Trucking Market Update: Weekly insights from Avery Vise on spot markets, economic indicators, and emerging industry developments. https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-podcast

Strategic Takeaways for Carriers

1. Expect model recalibrations as revised economic data filters in.
   Forecast stability may shift, especially for industrially driven freight.
2. Capacity decisions will remain central.
   If demand doesn’t improve, deeper cuts may be required to maintain utilization.
3. Watch for freight demand, not just supply tightening.
   The biggest catalyst for improved conditions remains a broad-based uplift in freight activity.
4. Maintain visibility through reliable forecasting.
   With government data corrections underway, a structured, multi-modal forecasting framework is essential for translating shifting macro trends into actionable fleet strategy.