FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) strengthened meaningfully at the end of 2025, rising to 4.85 in December from 2.14 in November. That reading marks the most favorable operating environment for U.S. carriers since February 2022, driven primarily by stronger freight rates and improved capacity utilization.
The December increase reinforces a broader shift underway in the truckload market. While conditions have been improving gradually for much of the past year, the latest data points to a firmer and more durable improvement heading into 2026.
What’s Behind the Improvement
Two core factors pushed the index higher:
- Freight rates, particularly in the spot market, strengthened late in the year
- Capacity utilization improved, signaling tighter market balance
Recent economic and industrial data also contributed to the stronger outlook, though FTR continues to note that some inputs are recent and subject to revision.
As Avery Vise, Vice President of Trucking at FTR, explained: “The TCI already indicated consistently favorable conditions for trucking companies over the next couple of years, but the latest outlook is even stronger… FTR is not forecasting anything like the 2021 market, but something close to it no longer seems inconceivable.”
Not a Repeat of 2021—But Directionally Stronger
FTR is not calling for a return to the extreme conditions of 2021. However, several independent signals support a healthier freight environment, including sharp spot rate increases following winter weather disruptions and a solid January manufacturing reading from the Institute for Supply Management.
Taken together, the data suggests trucking conditions are moving into a more favorable phase—one that supports improved carrier profitability while still requiring disciplined planning.
For the graph and full report, go to: https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index
