FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) moved higher in November, improving to 2.14 from 0.89 in October. The increase reflects stronger freight rates and improved capacity utilization, signaling a more favorable near-term operating environment for motor carriers.
While the index moved further into positive territory, the data suggests stabilization—not a full recovery.
Capacity Signals Improvement, Demand Remains the Watch Point
Recent data indicates that trucking capacity has declined meaningfully over the past year, contributing to firmer pricing and better utilization. However, the sustainability of these improvements remains tied to freight demand, which continues to show mixed signals.
As Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, noted:
“The latest available data indicates a substantial reduction of trucking capacity over the past year – a conclusion supported by stronger spot market rates than trend over the past month or so. It’s quite possible that capacity has bottomed out, so the attention now is squarely on freight demand, which still looks sluggish with both upside and downside potential. Trucking companies cannot get to sustained margin recovery on capacity reductions alone.”
The message is clear: capacity tightening has helped rebalance parts of the market, but margin recovery ultimately depends on demand growth.
What the Trucking Conditions Index Measures
The Trucking Conditions Index tracks five core components of the U.S. truck market:
- Freight volumes
- Freight rates
- Fleet capacity
- Fuel prices
- Financing costs
These inputs are combined into a single index that reflects overall industry health. Positive readings indicate favorable conditions, while readings near zero suggest a neutral operating environment.
Why This Matters Heading Into 2026
The January issue of Trucking Update expands on November’s results, including a deeper discussion of capacity dynamics and the factors that could influence trucking conditions in 2026. As economic uncertainty persists, consistent monitoring of rates, demand, and capacity remains critical for planning and risk management.
Charts supporting the Trucking Conditions Index are available for download and presentation use. https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index
Where Industry Leaders Can Stay Informed
FTR provides multiple access points for ongoing strategic monitoring
