FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) turned slightly negative in March, falling to -1.11 after posting a four-year high in February. The primary driver behind the decline was the sharp spike in diesel prices, which created a significant headwind for carriers across the market.
Despite the fuel pressure, the overall reading remained relatively resilient thanks to continued strength in freight-related fundamentals — particularly rates and capacity conditions. According to FTR, the positive contribution from freight rates offset much of the damage caused by soaring fuel costs, reinforcing expectations for a favorable carrier environment through much of 2026.
“Carriers of all stripes are in store for a strong year from a rates perspective, but for much of the market, the recovery remains driven by the combination of very tight capacity and disruption,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
FTR noted that open deck freight continues to outperform, supported by ongoing data center construction activity and modest improvement in manufacturing output. At the same time, van freight remains more challenged, with FTR expressing skepticism that volume growth alone will significantly improve conditions in that segment.
The Trucking Conditions Index measures the combined impact of freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs to provide a snapshot of overall trucking market health.
For the graph and full report, go to: https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index
Deeper Market Insight Available in Trucking Update
The latest issue of Trucking Update also explores how artificial intelligence may increasingly influence economic activity beyond consumer spending and data center construction, adding another layer to the evolving freight outlook.
Learn more about FTR’s Trucking Update subscription service to access the full analysis behind the latest Trucking Conditions Index and other key indicators shaping the truck freight market here.
