The Strategic Evolution of Freight•cast™: Driving Data-Backed Decisions
At FTR Transportation Intelligence, we often get asked about our proprietary freight model, Freight•cast™. This comprehensive tool helps us and our clients better understand the dynamics of freight movement across the U.S. It’s a cornerstone of our forecasting methodology, rooted in decades of industry insight.
We've long understood the economy generates freight, and freight drives the demand for carriers and equipment. Let’s take a step back in time to understand how we've learned this lesson.
A Model Born from Necessity: The 1970s Roots
Freight•cast’s story begins in the 1970s, a volatile economic era. Cummins Engine Company, struggling to forecast market demand accurately, sought a better way. Ed Graham, founder of FTR, led a team that approached forecasting with an innovative perspective:
If something is produced, it must be transported.
The team aggregated production data across industries and analyzed freight flow by tonnage. This wasn’t just about who moved the freight—it was about how goods moved across the entire supply chain. By identifying the total tonnage in the system and segmenting it by mode (truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline), the team laid the foundation for what would become Freight•cast™.
Moving Beyond Tonnage: The "Work" of Freight
The initial model provided clarity on freight volumes, but Ed Graham and his team quickly realized that tonnage alone didn’t tell the whole story. The transportation sector doesn’t operate solely on the weight of freight—it functions on the effort required to move it.
This led to the introduction of ton-miles, a metric that combines freight weight with distance traveled. Ton-miles measure the actual work performed, making it possible to assess and compare contributions across modes. For instance:
This insight transformed Freight•cast™ into a tool for understanding not just freight movement but also modal efficiency and market share.
The Evolution of Freight•cast™: Refining Data for Better Insights
When Ed Graham retired from Cummins in the early 1980s, the company decided not to continue the freight modeling project. Graham saw the value in the model and took it with him, laying the foundation for what would become FTR Transportation Intelligence.
One of the most significant enhancements was aligning the model with Standard Transportation Commodity Codes (STCC). This allowed for a granular view of freight movement by commodity, offering unparalleled visibility into trends at the sectoral level.
Today, Freight•cast™ integrates data from diverse sources, analyzes tonnage and ton-miles at the commodity level, and compares modal performance—all while maintaining an unbiased perspective.
Freight•cast™ empowers leaders like you to turn market complexity into clarity, helping your organization navigate economic shifts, capacity challenges, and evolving customer expectations with precision
A Trusted Resource for Strategic Leaders
This is just the tip of the iceberg regarding our methodology. I'll be working on content over the next few weeks to discuss our data sources, proprietary FTR outputs, and more! Until then, I recommend you join our complimentary webinar to discover how actionable intelligence can drive better outcomes for your business. It's not too late to register! Register now!