class 8 trucks
forecasting
The latest FTR Trucking Market Update with Avery Vise delivers a clear picture of how Thanksgiving seasonality, shifting fuel costs, and uneven economic data are influencing freight conditions heading into December.
Diesel Prices Fall Sharply
Diesel dropped 7.3 cents to $3.758 per gallon—its largest decline in nearly a year. Crude remains under $60, easing pressure on fuel costs despite tight Midwest distillate inventories.
Spot Market Reacts to Thanksgiving
Holiday disruptions drove typical volatility:
• Dry van rates surged more than 13 cents, the strongest jump since July.
• Refrigerated rates slipped; flatbed stayed nearly flat.
• Total loads fell 46%, but volume was still sharply higher than last year’s Thanksgiving week, highlighting a stronger seasonal baseline.
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Economic Indicators Send Mixed Signals
Housing
Mortgage rates edged down to 6.23%, offering slight relief for consumers.
Manufacturing
The ISM index dipped to 48.2%, its ninth month in contraction. Production improved, but new orders and backlogs weakened—raising concerns for future freight demand.
Durable Goods
New orders rose 0.5%, with core capital goods up nearly 1%, signaling some resilience in business investment.
Retail
Retail and food service sales were flat overall, down 0.5% when adjusted for inflation—evidence of softer real consumer demand.
Cost Pressures Persist
PPI data shows falling truck freight pricing in September but elevated equipment and materials costs:
• Trailer PPI up 3.4% y/y
• Aluminum prices up 26% y/y, hitting new records
These trends will continue to influence equipment markets into 2026.
This Week’s Takeaways
- Diesel prices dropped sharply.
- Dry van rates spiked despite holiday disruptions.
- Manufacturing remains soft while durable goods show pockets of strength.
- Retail spending is flat in real terms.
- Rising material prices continue to pressure equipment costs.
Download the full slide deck and listen to the podcast at:
www.FTRintel.com/trucking-podcast
