---
title: Trucking Revenues Rebound as Spot Market Stays Elevated
description: Discover the latest trends in trucking revenues, diesel prices, spot market conditions, and economic indicators shaping the freight industry in early 2026.
---

[State of Freight TODAY ](https://today.ftrintel.com)

# [Trucking Revenues Rebound as Spot Market Stays Elevated](https://today.ftrintel.com/tmu-feb-23-2026)

 Written by [FTR Analysts](https://today.ftrintel.com/author/ftr-analysts) | 2/26/26 3:15 PM

In Episode 353 of FTR’s Trucking Market Update, Avery Vise reviews trucking industry revenues, fourth-quarter GDP, diesel prices, spot market conditions, and key economic indicators shaping freight demand in early 2026 .

### Trucking Revenues: Modest Recovery in 2025

After two consecutive annual declines, for-hire trucking revenues increased 2.1% in 2025, following a 0.3% dip in 2024 and a sharp 8.6% drop in 2023. Fourth-quarter revenues rose 1.7% year over year, marking six positive y/y comparisons in the past seven quarters.

While topline revenue has improved, cost pressures remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, limiting margin expansion.

### GDP: Growth That Didn’t Translate to Freight

Real GDP grew 1.4% annualized in Q4, but the composition of growth was not freight-friendly.

- Services spending—particularly health care and housing/utilities—drove gains.
- Goods consumption contributed little.
- A 43-day federal government shutdown reduced growth by nearly 1 percentage point.
- The freight-linked portion of the economy declined 0.5% annualized in Q4.

The takeaway: economic growth occurred, but it offered limited support for goods movement.

### Diesel Prices: Sharp Weekly Increase

The national average diesel price rose 9.8 cents to $3.809 per gallon during the week ended February 23. Rising crude prices—amid renewed geopolitical tensions—contributed to the increase. Diesel is now modestly higher than the same week last year.

 

### Spot Market: Weather Effects Fade, Strength Remains

Spot rates for dry van and refrigerated equipment eased from weather-driven spikes but remain strong year over year. Flatbed continues to outperform.

- Total spot rates rose 2.4 cents week over week.
- Total rates are nearly 13% higher y/y.
- Flatbed rates hit their highest level since early May.
- Total load postings were 38% higher y/y, with flatbed loads up 53%.

Despite normalization from winter disruptions, capacity tightness and seasonal firming could keep rates supported.

### Housing and Mortgage Rates: Mixed Signals

Mortgage rates declined to 6.01%, the lowest since September 2022. Housing starts improved month over month but remain down 7.3% year over year. Inventories of unsold new homes fell to the lowest level since mid-2024—an encouraging sign for construction activity.

### Manufacturing and Orders: Momentum Building

January manufacturing output rose 0.6% m/m, reaching its highest level since late 2022. Machinery production and motor vehicles posted notable gains.

Core capital goods orders increased for a sixth consecutive month, and even inflation-adjusted (“real”) orders remain positive y/y—supporting a cautiously constructive outlook for industrial freight.

### Consumer and Trade Dynamics

Real consumer spending was flat in December, as services offset weaker goods spending. The personal saving rate declined to 3.6%, introducing some uncertainty into future demand.

International trade activity was driven primarily by industrial supplies and capital goods. Imports rose while exports declined, influenced heavily by commodity movements.

 

### Bottom Line

The trucking sector is stabilizing. Revenue growth has returned, spot rates remain firm, and manufacturing momentum is improving. However, freight demand continues to face structural headwinds from service-led economic growth, policy uncertainty around tariffs, and uneven consumer goods spending.

For full charts and supporting visuals referenced in this episode, download the accompanying slide deck [here](https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/State%20of%20Freight/Podcast%20Downloads/Trucking%20Podcast/Episode%20353%20-%20February%2023,%202026/FTR%20Trucking%20Market%20Update%20Podcast%20-%20Episode%20353.pdf).

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