Trucking Revenues Rebound as Spot Market Stays Elevated

In Episode 353 of FTR’s Trucking Market Update, Avery Vise reviews trucking industry revenues, fourth-quarter GDP, diesel prices, spot market conditions, and key economic indicators shaping freight demand in early 2026 .

Trucking Revenues: Modest Recovery in 2025

After two consecutive annual declines, for-hire trucking revenues increased 2.1% in 2025, following a 0.3% dip in 2024 and a sharp 8.6% drop in 2023. Fourth-quarter revenues rose 1.7% year over year, marking six positive y/y comparisons in the past seven quarters.

While topline revenue has improved, cost pressures remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, limiting margin expansion.

GDP: Growth That Didn’t Translate to Freight

Real GDP grew 1.4% annualized in Q4, but the composition of growth was not freight-friendly.

• Services spending—particularly health care and housing/utilities—drove gains.
• Goods consumption contributed little.
• A 43-day federal government shutdown reduced growth by nearly 1 percentage point.
• The freight-linked portion of the economy declined 0.5% annualized in Q4.

The takeaway: economic growth occurred, but it offered limited support for goods movement.

Diesel Prices: Sharp Weekly Increase

The national average diesel price rose 9.8 cents to $3.809 per gallon during the week ended February 23. Rising crude prices—amid renewed geopolitical tensions—contributed to the increase. Diesel is now modestly higher than the same week last year.

Spot Market: Weather Effects Fade, Strength Remains

Spot rates for dry van and refrigerated equipment eased from weather-driven spikes but remain strong year over year. Flatbed continues to outperform.

• Total spot rates rose 2.4 cents week over week.
• Total rates are nearly 13% higher y/y.
• Flatbed rates hit their highest level since early May.
• Total load postings were 38% higher y/y, with flatbed loads up 53%.

Despite normalization from winter disruptions, capacity tightness and seasonal firming could keep rates supported.

Housing and Mortgage Rates: Mixed Signals

Mortgage rates declined to 6.01%, the lowest since September 2022. Housing starts improved month over month but remain down 7.3% year over year. Inventories of unsold new homes fell to the lowest level since mid-2024—an encouraging sign for construction activity.

Manufacturing and Orders: Momentum Building

January manufacturing output rose 0.6% m/m, reaching its highest level since late 2022. Machinery production and motor vehicles posted notable gains.

Core capital goods orders increased for a sixth consecutive month, and even inflation-adjusted (“real”) orders remain positive y/y—supporting a cautiously constructive outlook for industrial freight.

Consumer and Trade Dynamics

Real consumer spending was flat in December, as services offset weaker goods spending. The personal saving rate declined to 3.6%, introducing some uncertainty into future demand.

International trade activity was driven primarily by industrial supplies and capital goods. Imports rose while exports declined, influenced heavily by commodity movements.

Bottom Line

The trucking sector is stabilizing. Revenue growth has returned, spot rates remain firm, and manufacturing momentum is improving. However, freight demand continues to face structural headwinds from service-led economic growth, policy uncertainty around tariffs, and uneven consumer goods spending.

For full charts and supporting visuals referenced in this episode, download the accompanying slide deck here.

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