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This week’s Trucking Market Update podcast covers a wide range of indicators that help frame where the freight market stands as we move through early 2026. In Episode 347, Avery Vise connects the dots between trucking-specific data and the broader economic signals that continue to shape demand, capacity, and pricing.
Below is a brief walkthrough of the key themes discussed on the podcast—and why they matter.
Trucking Employment: Stable, but Still Soft
We start with trucking payroll employment, which was unchanged month over month in December. On the surface, that sounds like stability—and compared to the volatility of the past few years, it is. But context matters.
Even with upward revisions to earlier months, trucking employment remains at its lowest level since mid-2021. More detailed data shows that general freight truckload jobs have been declining for six consecutive months. In other words, while the bleeding may have slowed, the labor market in trucking is still clearly under pressure.
This matters because employment trends tend to lag market conditions. What we’re seeing now reflects the prolonged softness carriers have been navigating rather than a sudden new downturn.
Related Sectors Are Sending Similar Signals
Looking beyond trucking, the story is consistent. Employment in warehousing and storage declined again in December and is now down more than 2% year over year. Parcel and local delivery jobs have also slipped compared to last year.
These sectors tend to move with freight volumes and inventory strategies. Continued contraction suggests that freight demand hasn’t recovered enough to support broader logistics hiring, reinforcing the idea that this remains a slow-growth environment.
Diesel Prices: Relief with a Caveat
Diesel prices fell for the eighth straight week, pushing the national average down to levels last seen in mid-2024. For carriers, that’s welcome relief on operating costs. From a market perspective, though, falling fuel prices often reflect weaker demand rather than strengthening fundamentals.
Crude oil prices remain below $60 per barrel, which helps keep diesel prices in check but also underscores the lack of strong economic momentum behind freight markets right now.
Spot Market: Post-Holiday Reset in Motion
As expected, spot rates pulled back sharply following the holidays. Dry van and refrigerated rates fell after strong gains late last year, while flatbed rates showed some seasonal strength and reached their highest level since summer.
Load volumes surged coming out of the New Year holiday, particularly for flatbed, but comparisons to five-year averages show the market is still running below normal for this time of year. This is typical for January, but it reinforces how fragile the spot market remains.
Housing and the Broader Economy
Housing data was another key focus this week. Housing starts fell to their lowest level since May 2020, driven largely by a sharp drop in multifamily construction. Single-family starts improved modestly, but not enough to offset the broader decline.
On the labor side, job openings fell again and are now near five-year lows. The U.S. economy added just 50,000 jobs in December, with most of the growth concentrated in leisure, hospitality, and healthcare. Outside of those areas, job losses were widespread—including in transportation and warehousing.
Trade Data: Headline Numbers Can Mislead
The podcast wraps up with a look at U.S. trade data, where a sharp drop in the goods deficit made headlines. But as discussed, much of that improvement was driven by extreme swings in pharmaceuticals and gold, not a fundamental shift in trade flows.
When those volatile categories are stripped out, imports actually rose and exports were essentially flat—another reminder that headline data doesn’t always tell the full story.
Want the Full Context?
This recap hits the highlights, but the real value is in the context around what’s seasonal, what’s structural, and what these trends mean looking ahead. The full episode walks through the data in detail and explains why some signals matter more than others right now.
If you want the deeper analysis—and the charts to go with it—listen to FTR’s Trucking Market Update, Episode 347, and download the companion PDF with all the visuals referenced in the discussion.
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This article was created from an excerpt of this week's FTR Trucking Market Update Podcast! Tune in to hear the entire episode and download the accompanying slides.
