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In Episode 348 of the FTR Trucking Market Update, Avery Vise walks through a wide-ranging set of indicators shaping the early-2026 freight environment—from post-holiday normalization in the spot market to encouraging signals in housing and mixed momentum across industrial and consumer activity. Below is a structured recap of the key themes discussed, with context for how these data points connect rather than conclusions about where the market ultimately lands.
Spot Market: January Normalization Takes Hold
Post-holiday adjustments continued into Week 2, with rate pressure most visible in van segments while flatbed trends remained comparatively firm.
Rates
- Dry van and refrigerated van spot rates declined more sharply than typical for this time of year.
- Refrigerated rates experienced an unusually steep week-over-week drop following strong December gains.
- Flatbed spot rates increased again, extending a multi-week upward trend.
Relative Context
- Total spot rates remained higher than the same week in 2025 but below the five-year average.
- Flatbed rates outperformed van and reefer rates on a year-over-year basis for the first time in several months.
Load Activity
- Overall load postings were essentially flat week-over-week.
- Flatbed load volume stood out as the primary source of strength, posting year-over-year and five-year-average gains.
- Dry van and refrigerated volumes continued to trail historical norms.
Why it matters:
The easing of December stress does not negate late-2025 signals around capacity attrition. Instead, it reinforces that tighter capacity alone is not enough to sustain higher rates without a stronger freight demand backdrop.
Housing: Lower Rates, Improving Sales Momentum
Housing data offered some of the more constructive signals in this week’s update.
- Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since September 2022.
- Existing home sales rose strongly in December, extending a four-month growth streak.
- Median existing-home prices showed minimal year-over-year growth, easing affordability pressures.
- New home sales were flat in October following significant downward revisions to prior months, but price declines were notable.
Why it matters:
Housing activity influences a broad set of freight-intensive categories, including building materials, furnishings, and appliances. Stabilization here supports a less negative outlook for related freight demand, even if volumes remain historically soft.
Industrial Production: Mixed but Incrementally Positive
December industrial production increased modestly, though performance varied by sector.
- Manufacturing output edged higher, with strength in primary metals, aerospace, and electrical equipment.
- Motor vehicle and parts production declined, continuing recent volatility.
- Overall industrial production remained positive on a year-over-year basis.
Why it matters:
Incremental gains in manufacturing—particularly metals and equipment—align with the relative strength seen in flatbed activity, reinforcing cross-sector consistency rather than signaling a broad-based acceleration.
Consumer Activity: Steady Spending, Select Weak Spots
Consumer spending rose modestly in November, supported by gains across most retail categories.
- Motor vehicle and parts sales rebounded month-over-month but slipped year-over-year.
- Nonstore retail growth lagged slightly, though e-commerce penetration remained historically high.
- Department stores continued to underperform, while discretionary categories showed mixed results.
Why it matters:
Consumer demand remains resilient enough to avoid contraction-driven freight risk, but not strong enough to materially lift volumes across the network.
Inflation and Cost Pressures: Diverging Signals
Consumer inflation held steady in December, with shelter and food costs offset by declining used vehicle prices.- Producer-level inflation firmed in November, particularly in freight-related services.
- LTL pricing remained elevated year-over-year.
- Insurance and equipment input costs, including trailers and aluminum components, stayed near record levels.
Why it matters:
Operating costs remain a persistent challenge for carriers, even as spot rates soften—keeping margin pressure front and center for fleet decision-makers.
Key Themes to Watch Going Forward
- Spot market normalization versus underlying capacity trends
- Housing’s ability to sustain recent momentum
- Manufacturing sector dispersion and equipment-driven freight demand
- Cost inflation at the producer level relative to rate recovery
For deeper commentary, historical context, and the supporting charts behind these trends, listen to the full episode of the FTR Trucking Market Update Podcast – Episode 348.
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This article was created from an excerpt of this week's FTR Trucking Market Update Podcast! Tune in to hear the entire episode and download the accompanying slides.
