Weather Risks, Rising Fuel Costs, and Steady Consumer Demand

This week’s FTR Trucking Market Update offers a solid snapshot of where the trucking market stands as January winds down. From a sharp move higher in diesel prices to post-holiday softness in spot rates—and a winter storm that could disrupt the normal seasonal pattern—Episode 349 covers the key signals worth watching.

Here’s the quick recap.

Diesel Prices Move Higher

After eight straight weeks of declines, diesel prices jumped 9.4 cents last week to $3.62 per gallon, marking a notable reversal. The Midwest saw some of the largest increases, reminding fleets how quickly fuel costs can re-enter the conversation.

Spot Rates: Seasonal, for Now

As expected, spot rates softened after the holidays.

• Dry van and reefer rates declined, though less than typical for this time of year
• Flatbed rates continued to strengthen, hitting their highest levels since mid-2025

A widespread winter storm could temporarily push rates higher, especially for refrigerated equipment, based on how similar events have played out in the past.

Load Volumes Are Uneven

Freight volumes told a mixed story:

• Dry van loads fell and remain well below historical averages
• Reefer volumes improved modestly, but are still weak
• Flatbed demand remains a bright spot, running above both last year and the five-year average

Consumers Are Still Spending

On the macro side, consumer demand continues to hold up.

• Real consumer spending rose 2.6% year over year, led by goods
• Durable goods spending has been supported by technology and recreational products
• Services spending continues to grow, driven largely by healthcare

The tradeoff? Consumers are leaning harder on savings. The personal saving rate has dropped to its lowest level in more than three years, suggesting less cushion if inflation or employment conditions shift.

Inflation and Other Signals

Inflation remains sticky, with core PCE holding at 2.8% year over year. Vehicle sales improved month over month but remain down versus last year, while construction spending and new business formation both softened in December.

Bottom Line

The market isn’t breaking—but it’s not accelerating either. Costs are creeping higher, demand is uneven, and weather remains the near-term wildcard.

For more detail, historical context, and charts, the full episode—and downloadable slide deck—are worth a look.