Trucking Market Update – Week of September 1, 2025

This week’s Trucking Market Update from FTR, hosted by Avery Vise, focused on tariffs, carrier population trends, fuel and spot market activity, and broader economic indicators. Here’s what stood out.

Tariff Update: Appeals Court Ruling

A federal appeals court ruled that the administration improperly used emergency powers to impose broad tariffs. While the decision raises questions about trade policy, the tariffs remain in place until at least mid-October.

• Court ruled against the use of emergency powers for country-specific tariffs.
• Section 232 “national security” tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and autos remain unaffected.
• Tariffs could stay in place into 2026 if the Supreme Court takes up the case.

For-Hire Trucking Population Stabilizes

The for-hire trucking industry saw a net increase in carriers for the fourth time in five months, suggesting stabilization after years of contraction.

• 4,930 new carriers authorized in August, slightly below average but consistent with 2025 levels.
• About 4,500 authority revocations, leading to a net gain of ~430 carriers.
• Stability likely reflects weaker operators having already exited the market.

For more insights like these, be sure to catch the FTR Trucking Market Update podcast each week, where we break down the latest trends shaping freight and driver capacity. 📊 Download the full podcast deck and listen to Episode 329 at ftrintel.com/trucking-podcast.

Fuel and Spot Market Conditions

Fuel prices edged higher, while spot market activity showed seasonal strength in van segments but continued weakness for flatbed.

• Diesel up 2.6 cents to $3.734/gal — first increase in six weeks.
• Dry van spot rates rose 7 cents; refrigerated jumped 15 cents.
• Flatbed spot rates fell 1.4 cents, the eighth straight weekly decline.
• Load activity up 1.2%, with dry van and refrigerated volumes rising.

Broader Economic Indicators

Economic signals were mixed: consumer spending and capital goods orders improved, while manufacturing remained in contraction.

• Mortgage rates fell slightly to 6.56%, lowest since October 2024.
• ISM manufacturing index improved to 48.7, still showing contraction.
• Durable goods orders (ex-aircraft) rose 1.1% m/m; core capital goods +4.1% y/y.
• Imports jumped 7.1% m/m, led by industrial supplies; auto imports fell.
• Consumer spending +0.3% m/m in July, boosted by vehicles and food.
• Retail inventories-to-sales ratio tightened, showing leaner stocks.

Key Takeaways

Overall, the trucking market is showing more balance than earlier in the year. Policy developments, seasonal rate strength, and consumer demand are all shaping near-term dynamics.

• Tariffs remain in place despite a legal challenge.
• Carrier population continues to stabilize.
• Diesel prices ticked higher; van spot rates gained seasonally.
• Manufacturing remains soft, but consumer spending and trade showed growth.