U.S. Trailer Orders Defy Expectations in March—but Will Tariffs Disrupt Momentum?

U.S. trailer net orders continued their surprising strength in March, climbing above 21,500 units. But as geopolitical risks rise and tariffs disrupt trade, market watchers are asking: how long can this momentum last?

Unexpected Strength in Trailer Orders

Despite expectations for a slowdown, FTR reports March 2025 trailer net orders hit 21,516 units—a 3% m/m increase and a 70% surge y/y. It’s the fifth straight month orders exceeded 20,000.

Still, the 2025 order season (September through March) trails last year:

• Cumulative orders: 146,253 units, down 8% y/y
• Monthly average: 20,893 units

Production and Backlogs
Production rose:

• Build up 11% m/m to 17,611 units
• YTD production down 31% y/y, totaling 46,218 units

Backlogs climbed to 127,892 units—up 4% m/m, but down 16% y/y. The backlog-to-build ratio fell to 7.3 months.

Are Fleets Shifting Strategy?
Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior commercial vehicle analyst, observed that fleets may be focusing on trailers over power units. Trailer net orders are currently 7,900 units ahead of Class 8 truck orders.

“Some fleets appear to be prioritizing adding trailers in lieu of power units,” said Moyer. “Given the increasing level of uncertainty—the economy, tariffs, truck freight demand and pricing, etc.—it remains to be seen if this order strength can be sustained.”

Tariffs Introduce New Risks
New U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico are pressuring costs and operations for OEMs, suppliers, and fleets. Retaliatory tariffs from China have already hit U.S. exports and critical inputs.

Moyer added:

“Recently imposed U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market... Higher prices and prolonged lead times may result in postponed procurement decisions or a renewed focus on upgrading power units instead.”

For context:

• 30% of U.S. ocean imports come from China
• 40% of key rare earths are China-sourced

Final Takeaway
March’s strong orders signal market resilience, but rising tariffs and slowing production suggest a more volatile road ahead. The key question: Can demand hold up under growing pressure?

📊 View data charts: FTR Trailer Orders

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