January’s U.S. trailer net orders continued their upward trajectory year-over-year (y/y), rising 81% to reach 23,966 units, according to the latest report from FTR. However, orders fell 2% month-over-month (m/m), indicating a mixed outlook for the market.
Key Takeaways from January’s Data
- Positive Growth Streak: January marks the third consecutive month of y/y growth in trailer net orders.
- Order Season Performance: Total net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024 – January 2025) reached 98,926 units, down 21% y/y.
- Production Challenges: January trailer production increased 2% m/m, but remains 35% lower y/y—sitting 46% below the seven-year January average.
- Backlog Increase: Net orders outpaced production, raising backlogs by 12,210 units and pushing the backlog/build ratio to 9.7 months—its highest since February 2023.
Market Forces Impacting Trailer Demand
1. Shift Toward Power Units
Fleets are continuing to prioritize purchasing power units over trailers, a trend expected to persist due to EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations on trucks. According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles at FTR:
“Many fleets continue to prioritize purchasing power units over trailers – a trend unlikely to reverse given the approaching implementation of EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations on trucks. During the 2025 order season so far, North American Class 8 net orders are up 4% y/y while U.S. trailer net orders are down 21%. Trailer OEMs have scaled back production, and prolonged cuts are possible if demand remains weak.”
2. Tariff Uncertainty Adding Market Volatility
The U.S. trailer market is also facing significant uncertainty from pending tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will impact both imported and domestically manufactured trailers. Moyer explains:
“Tariffs threaten further disruption. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports planned to take effect next month along with the 10% additional tariff already imposed on Chinese imports and the currently paused but still possible 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will raise material costs, squeeze margins, and strain supply chains. Tariffs will affect not only fully assembled trailers imported into the U.S. but also domestically produced trailers, which depend on imported materials and components. Expect market volatility as OEMs try to adapt to uncertainty over scope and timing of tariff impacts.”
These tariffs are expected to increase input costs, tighten supply chains, and reduce margins for trailer manufacturers, which could lead to further production slowdowns.
What’s Next for the Trailer Market?
With strong trailer order backlogs and demand signals fluctuating, the next few months will be crucial for understanding whether orders will sustain their current momentum or taper off under cost pressures and shifting fleet priorities.
For a visual breakdown of the data, check out FTR’s full report here.